Country Report Cameroon May 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The ruling Rassemblement democratique du peuple camerounais (RDPC) is expected to continue to dominate the political scene during 2009-10, although factional divisions will increasingly jeopardise its unity.
• Given the advanced age of the president, Paul Biya, and the reportedly fragile state of his health, his departure from office as a result of sickness cannot be ruled out. In such an event, the ensuing power vacuum could be destabilising.
• The government will struggle to secure foreign investment for infrastructure, agricultural and mining projects amid the severe global economic slowdown and tight financial markets.
• Given the Economist Intelligence Unit's forecast of sharply reduced global demand and lower average oil prices in 2009-10, real GDP growth is expected to be just 0.2% in 2009 and 0.9% in 2010.
• World prices for food and fuel will drop in 2009, but lower subsidies will offset some of this deflationary pressure, leading to average inflation of 3%. Higher commodity prices will sustain inflation at 3.2% in 2010.
• In line with movements in the trade account and global oil prices, the current account is forecast to post a deficit equivalent to 4% of GDP in 2009, which will narrow to 3.5% of GDP in 2010.

Monthly review

• Some 50 members of an Anglophone separatist group, Southern Cameroon National Council (SCNC), were arrested in mid-April for allegedly holding an illegal public meeting.
• Civil society groups, local media and even some of Cameroon's donors have criticised the delay in the release of the results of the population and housing census that was undertaken in 2005.
• In April the prime minister, Ephraim Inoni, established an inter-ministerial committee charged with proposing measures to cushion the country from the current global economic and financial crisis.
• Indicating an accommodative stance towards public-sector pay demands, the government has announced the creation of a special research fund endowed with some CFAfr4.9bn (US$10m) to end a strike by university lecturers.
• In April it was announced that Geovic Cameroona local subsidiary of a Canadian firm, Geovic Miningwill delay by at least a year construction of a planned cobalt mine and processing plant.
• The government has introduced an excise stamp duty on alcoholic drinks, tobacco products and medicines.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 48;70;15;49;60;10
NAICS Code: 517;72;23;22;52;212