Country Report Cameroon October 2009

Summary

The Economist Intelligence Unit's core forecast is that the president, Paul Biya, will win re-election in 2011, when the next presidential poll is due.
Rival candidates from the ruling Rassemblement democratique du peuple camerounais are expected to emerge, among whom may feature serving ministers.
Dispute over the poll results; rivalries between ethnic groups and regions; spikes in the cost of living; and a chronic lack of jobs, social welfare and services are all likely to trigger sporadic outbursts of unrest.
Higher world oil prices will offset declining output in 2010 to keep the fiscal balance in surplus, equivalent to 0.4% of GDP, but pre-election spending and a drop in oil prices will turn the balance to a deficit, of 0.4% of GDP, in 2011.
Slow growth in agriculture, industry and services is expected in 2010-11, when real GDP growth will average 1.9% a year.
Buoyed by higher global oil prices, the current-account deficit will shrink to 2.2% of GDP in 2010, before widening to 2.7% of GDP in 2011 as oil output and prices both decline.

The Cameroonian government has launched a recruitment drive that will significantly expand its armed forces. The government plans an intake of about 5,000 new recruits into the army and national gendarmerie.
Two recent decisions by Cameroonian authorities have raised concern that they may be tightening pressure on media outlets critical of the government.
Revelations about an extravagant holiday taken in France recently by Mr Biya and his entourage have provoked popular fury in Cameroon and France.
Recent data show that fiscal revenue in the first half of 2009 totalled CFAfr922bn (US$2bn), compared with CFAfr1.1trn (US$2.4bn) in the same period of 2008. The fall was caused by the sharp drop in oil prices.
Recent reports of embezzlement at the regional central bank, Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale, have tarnished the institution's reputation.
A Chinese construction company, Sinohydro, has signed a letter of intent with the Cameroonian authorities for the construction of a 200-mw Memve'ele hydroelectric dam on the Ntem River, in South province.
The entry of new players into Cameroon's Internet market has begun to force down the price of Internet subscriptions, bringing online services within the reach of more consumers.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;10;47;49
NAICS Code: 52;212;48;22