Country Report Central African Republic 1st Quarter 2012
Market Research Report

Country Report Central African Republic 1st Quarter 2012 Market Research Report

Outlook for 2012-13

The political outlook for the Central African Republic (CAR) remains uncertain owing to continuing violence in rural areas, the disputed re-election of the incumbent, François Bozizé, in early 2011 and the arrest of a rebel leader, Jean-Jacques Demafouth. Mr Demafouth's arrest compromises the peace process, while hopes for an inclusive unity government have faded. This makes a return to political stability unlikely, even with renewed donor engagement. Although he will maintain a firm grip on the capital, Bangui, Mr Bozizé will need international help to stabilise the remote border regions. Real GDP is projected to grow by 3.6% in 2012 and 3.5% in 2013 as output and prices of the CAR's main exports-timber and diamonds-pick up and heavy government investment drives up domestic demand. Rising imports will offset export gains, maintaining the current-account deficit at 10.4% of GDP in 2012-13.

The political scene

In early January Mr Bozizé ordered the arrest of Jean-Jacques Demafouth, the president of the Armée populaire pour la restoration de la démocratie (APRD), prompting the APRD and a second rebel group to pull out of the peace process. Although Mr Demafouth's arrest has merely served to bring into the open the underlying mistrust between the various parties, it risks compromising the progress made in peace-building efforts. The armed forces of the CAR and Chad have launched joint attacks on an armed group, the Front populaire pour le redressement, which has reportedly moved its operations into Sudan. The mandate of the UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in the CAR has been renewed for a further year.

Economic policy

The president has dismissed the boards of nine public companies, including the state electricity, water and telecommunications boards, as a "temporary" anti-corruption measure. However, he appears to have tightened his personal control over public expenditure, and the IMF remains unwilling to agree a new extended credit facility, citing concerns about the management of public finances. The CAR has signed up to a voluntary timber-certification scheme.

The domestic economy

The IMF has downgraded its estimates of the CAR's growth in 2011. China has resumed oil exploration work in the north-east of the country, while a Canadian firm, Axmin, is making progress with gold-exploration plans.

Foreign trade and payments

The CAR has been ranked last in the 2011 Legatum Prosperity Index, although it scores better in the index's entrepreneurship and opportunity subsection. The CAR is at moderate risk for debt distress, according to the IMF and World Bank.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 10;37;49
NAICS Code: 212;22;336

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available