Country Report Central African Republic December 2008

Outlook for 2009-10

The political outlook for the Central African Republic (CAR) remains uncertain, although prospects for resolving the country's crisis are enhanced by the talks now taking place every month in Libreville between the government and the main rebel groups and by the planned inclusive political dialogue (IPD), which is due to take place in December. Although the president, Francois Bozize, will maintain a firm grip on the capital, Bangui, he will need international help to bring some stability to the remote border regions, notably through the EU peacekeeping force, EUFOR, and the new regional force, Micopax. The successful implementation of the IMF's approval of a poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) has led to the full resumption of donor aid, which will be vital for the government's survival. The resumption of donor support and the ongoing agricultural recovery should drive real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2009 and 5.2% in 2010, while inflationary pressures should subside as result of lower international prices, reducing average inflation to 4.2% in 2009 and 5.3% in 2010.

The political scene

Peace talks between the government and the two main rebel forces operating in the CAR have resumed, leading to the modification of the Dialogue Preparatory Committee and a promise by Mr Bozize that the amnesty law adopted in late September will be revised. The IPD has been scheduled to take place in Bangui from December 5th to 2oth. The UN has discussed the successor to EUFOR, whose mandate runs out in March 2009.

Economic policy

The IMF has carried out its third review of the CAR's PRGF, commending the government's overall macroeconomic performance. The African Development Bank and the World Bank have conducted a joint mission to the CAR to discuss their programme for 2009-12.

The domestic economy

The regional development bank, Banque de developpement des Etats de l'Afrique centrale, has approved a grant to fund a study on improving the Boali-Bangui power network. Cotton output is set rise sharply, from just 2,261 tonnes in the 2006/07 season to 8,000 tonnes in 2007/08. The Bambari permits owned by Canada's Axmin have been limited to the exploration of gold only, although the company has edged closer to obtaining a mining permit for its Passendro Gold Project. The French nuclear group, Areva, has sold 49% of its shares in UraMin, which hold rights to the Bakouma uranium deposit.

Foreign trade and payments

France has granted the CAR a debt write-off worth 38m (US$47.9m).

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 1;49;10
NAICS Code: 11;22;212