Country Report Congo (Brazzaville) January 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

The president, Denis Sassou-Nguesso, and his ruling coalition will continue to dominate the political scene in 2009-10, as he is expected to be re-elected by a landslide in the presidential poll, which is scheduled to take place around March2009. Although the stability of the peace process is a source of concern, the Economist Intelligence Unit does not expect a new civil conflict to erupt in Pool region. The regime will be forced to re-evaluate its economic development programme in line with lower oil prices. There is a high risk that any new programme or target agreed with the IMF during the forecast period will be subject to fiscal slippages associated with the electoral cycle. Real GDP is forecast to continue to grow strongly, by 9.5% in 2009 and 8% in 2010, owing to a significant expansion in oil production. Inflation is forecast to fall to an average of 3% in 2009, owing to a significant fall in oil and food prices on international markets, before rising slightly to 3.5% in 2010 as oil prices rise.

The political scene

The government has announced that a new electoral census will not be held ahead of the presidential election and that, instead, the existing voter registry will simply be updated. Pro-presidential parties have started to organise to support Mr Sassou-Nguesso's re-election bid. The main opposition party, Union panafricaine pour la democratie sociale (UPADS), has selected Ange-Edouard Poungui as its presidential candidate.

Economic policy

The government has signed a new three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) with the IMF, following the relatively successful implementation of the staff-monitored programme (SMP) in the first half of 2008. The new programme aims to reduce the non-oil primary fiscal deficit from an estimated 43% of non-oil GDP in 2008 to 34% of non-oil GDP in 2011 and to improve transparency in public financial management. The regional central bank has eased monetary conditions to offset some of the effects of the global economic crisis on the region's economy.

The domestic economy

The global economic slowdown has affected activity in the forestry sector. Oil production is estimated to have risen to 245,000 barrels/day (b/d) in 2008, from 224,000 b/d in 2007, as a result of the coming on stream in April of the Moho-Bilondo ultra-deep field.

Foreign trade and payments

Foreign-exchange reserves rose from US$2.17bn at end-2007 to US$3.39bn in September 2008, owing to the sharp increase in oil revenue.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 15
NAICS Code: 23

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 15
NAICS Code: 23