Country Report Cote d'Ivoire April 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The holding of the presidential election, expected to take place in late 2009, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability, as it is intended to bring an end to the political crisis.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• The country was awarded an IMF-supported three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) in March 2009, which could pave the way for large external debt write-offs in late 2010.
• Real GDP is forecast to grow by just 3% in 2009 as the global economic downturn and weak commodity prices affect economic activity, before accelerating to 4% in 2010 as reconstruction work speeds up.
• Inflation is forecast to fall from an average of 6.3% in 2008 to 3.5% in 2009 and 3.2% in 2010 as a result of lower international food and oil prices.
• The current-account deficit is expected to widen from an estimated 0.6% of GDP in 2008 to 3.8% of GDP in 2009 and 5.7% of GDP in 2010, largely as a result of a narrowing trade surplus and a widening services deficit in 2010.

Monthly review

• The process of identifying and registering voters for the presidential election has almost been completed and the independent electoral commission has indicated that the poll could be held in September.
• The Economist Intelligence Units 2008 democracy index ranks Cote d'Ivoire 134th out of 167 countries, putting it among 51 "authoritarian" countries. This reflects the political crisis that has affected the country since 2000.
• The IMF has awarded Cote d'Ivoire a three-year PRGF arrangement, worth SDR374m (US$566m), of which SDR159m was made available upfront.
• The PRGF focuses on widening the tax base, completing the unification of state finances and improving public expenditure management to increase the efficiency of spending in pro-poor sectors.
• The award of the PRGF and the IMF's acceptance of the new poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP) have paved the way for Cote d'Ivoire to reach decision point under the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative.
• Although oil output was expected to climb in 2008, it fell from an average of 48,000 barrels/day (b/d) in 2007 to 46,000 b/d in 2008 owing to delays in drilling new wells.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;53
NAICS Code: 52;44