Country Report Cote d'Ivoire December 2008

Outlook for 2009-10

• The holding of the presidential election, expected to take place in early 2009, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving political stability, as it is intended to bring an end to the political crisis.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• Despite some fiscal slippages ahead of the election, the IMF is expected to award a poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) in the first half of 2009, which could pave the way for large debt write-offs in late 2010.
• Assuming that elections pass off peacefully, economic prospects are expected to improve substantially and real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 3.6% in 2009 and 4.5% in 2010.
• Inflation is forecast to fall from an estimated average of 6.1% in 2008 to 2.5% in 2009 and 3.5% in 2010 as a result of lower international food and oil prices.
• The current account is forecast to turn into a deficit equivalent to 1.5% of GDP in 2009 and 2.3% of GDP in 2010, owing to a sharp fall in commodity prices in 2009 and rapidly growing imports in 2010.

Monthly review

• The voter registration process has continued to advance slowly, with centres opened only in Abidjan and Bouake.
• As a result of these delays, the main political parties have been forced to accept the postponement of the presidential election, which was due to take place on November 30th, until 2009.
• The independent electoral commission has, before the end of 2008, to announce a new election date.
• The government has struggled to meet its domestic payments, and arrears to domestic providers and public-sector workers have continued to accumulate.
• The government has amended the budget to include off-budget expenditure on some important infrastructure projects, following IMF recommendations.
• Inflationary pressures have started to subside since peaking in August-September, owing to the substantial fall in food prices, especially of fresh produce like fruit, vegetables and meat.
• According to official figures, Cote d'Ivoire has reserves of 400m barrels of oil and 2trn cu metres of gas. Oil production remained stagnant in the first half of 2008, at around 48,000 barrels/day..

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60
NAICS Code: 52