Country Report Cote d'Ivoire February 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The holding of the presidential election, expected to take place in late 2009, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability, as it is intended to bring an end to the political crisis.
• Political instability may continue after the poll, if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• Despite some fiscal slippages ahead of the election, the IMF is expected to award a three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) in the first half of 2009, which could pave the way for large debt write-offs in late 2010.
• Even if the elections pass off peacefully, real GDP is forecast to grow by just 3% in 2009, as the global economic downturn affects economic activity, before accelerating to 4% in 2010, as reconstruction work speeds up.
• Inflation is forecast to fall from an average of 6.3% in 2008 to 3.5% in 2009 and 2.7% in 2010 as a result of lower international food and oil prices.
• The current-account deficit is expected to widen from an estimated 0.1% of GDP in 2008 to 4% of GDP in 2009 and 5.1% of GDP in 2010, largely as a result of a narrowing trade surplus and a widening services deficit in 2010.

Monthly review

• Voter registration has continued to advance slowly because of periodic disruptions caused by logistical failures and strikes over pay.
• An increasing number of allegations of fraud have cast further doubt on the integrity of the registration process.
• Peacekeeping forces operating in Cote d'Ivoire are due to be reduced over the next three months in response to the improved security situation, but their term will be extended at least until the presidential election.
• The process of restoring central government administration to rebel-controlled areas has finally started, which could help increase tax revenue and reduce smuggling to neighbouring countries.
• There are many potential obstacles to be overcome, as it will be necessary to integrate those who worked for the rebel administration, and because rebel commanders have profited from levying their own taxes.
• Exports of cocoa beans from Cote d'Ivoire have fallen sharply owing to disruptions in marketing, low producer prices early in the marketing period and the spread of black-pod disease.
• The drop in output has led to a rapid rise in both international and local cocoa prices.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37;53;49;60;2834;80;48;1;20
NAICS Code: 336;44;22;52;3254;62;517;11;311