Country Report Cote d'Ivoire January 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The holding of the presidential election, expected to take place in mid-2009, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability, as it is intended to bring an end to the political crisis.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• Despite some fiscal slippages ahead of the election, the IMF is expected to award a three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) in the first half of 2009, which could pave the way for large debt write-offs in late 2010.
• Even if the elections pass off peacefully, real GDP is forecast to grow by just 3.1% in 2009, owing to the substantial global economic downturn, before accelerating to 4.2% in 2010 as reconstruction work speeds up.
• Inflation is forecast to fall from an estimated average of 6.1% in 2008 to 2.5% in 2009 and 3.5% in 2010 as a result of lower international food and oil prices.
• The current account is forecast to move into a deficit equivalent to 1.8% of GDP in 2009 and 3.6% of GDP in 2010, owing to a sharp fall in commodity prices in 2009 and rapidly growing imports in 2010.

Monthly review

• The voter registration process has continued to advance slowly, constraining the possibility of announcing a new date for the long-delayed presidential election.
• A fourth complementary agreement to the Ouagadougou peace accord has been signed, establishing the framework for demobilising an estimated 36,000 rebel troops, although this is unlikely to be completed before the election.
• Sporadic violence by bandits and renegade rebel units has continued in the former buffer zone between government- and rebel-controlled areas.
• The IMF and the World Bank have ruled that the country is eligible for debt relief under the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative, but it must meet a final series of benchmarks to reach decision point by March 2009.
• The government has presented the poverty reduction strategy paper (PRSP), which sets economic priorities for 2009-13.
• The government has presented to the National Assembly the 2009 draft budget, which projects a 6.4% increase in expenditure, reflecting a higher wage bill and the payment of a substantial amount of debt arrears.
• The government has signed an interim economic partnership agreement (EPA) with the EU which foresees the gradual establishment of reciprocal trade preferences over the next 15 years.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 10;70;60
NAICS Code: 212;72;52

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 10;70;60
NAICS Code: 212;72;52