Country Report Cote d'Ivoire March 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The holding of the presidential election, expected to take place in late 2009, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability, as it is intended to bring an end to the political crisis.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• Despite some fiscal slippages ahead of the election, the IMF is expected to award a three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) in March 2009, which could pave the way for large debt write-offs in late 2010.
• Real GDP is forecast to grow by just 3% in 2009 as the global economic downturn and weak commodity prices affect economic activity, before accelerating to 4% in 2010 as reconstruction work speeds up.
• Inflation is forecast to fall from an average of 6.3% in 2008 to 3.5% in 2009 and 3.2% in 2010 as a result of lower international food and oil prices.
• The current-account deficit is expected to widen from an estimated 2.6% of GDP in 2008 to 3.5% of GDP in 2009 and 5.1% of GDP in 2010, largely as a result of a narrowing trade surplus and a widening services deficit in 2010

Monthly review

• A total of 4.7m people have already been registered to vote. However, owing to logistical constraints this figure is far short of the target of 8.7m voters, and the process is expected to be extended by another few months.
• The special representative of the UN secretary-general in Cote d'Ivoire, Choi Young-jin, has proposed a five-stage election timetable that projects elections taking place around November 2009.
• There have been several reported problems with the funding of the demobilisation programme, casting doubts over the possibility that militias can be reintegrated ahead of the poll.
• A mixed donor mission, led by the IMF, has expressed satisfaction with the progress made so far by the government and has declared that a PRGF may be granted in March 2009.
• According to preliminary figures issued by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the fiscal balance posted a small surplus in 2008 owing to strong oil and cocoa revenue and higher inflows of donor funding.
• A UK-based company, Randgold Resources, has announced that in 2010 it intends to develop the Tongon deposit, which contains an estimated 120tonnes of gold reserves.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37;2834;80;10
NAICS Code: 336;3254;62;212