Country Report Cote d'Ivoire May 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The holding of the presidential election, expected to take place in late 2009, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability, as it is intended to bring an end to the political crisis.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• The country was awarded an IMF-supported three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) in March 2009, which could pave the way for large external debt write-offs in late 2010.
• Real GDP is forecast to grow by just 3% in 2009 as the global economic downturn and weak commodity prices affect economic activity, before accelerating to 4.1% in 2010 as reconstruction work speeds up.
• Inflation is forecast to fall from an average of 6.3% in 2008 to 3.5% in 2009 and 3.2% in 2010 as a result of lower international food and oil prices.
• The current account is expected to move into deficit over the forecast period, recording shortfalls of 3.9% of GDP in 2009 and 5.7% of GDP in 2010, largely as a result of a narrowing trade surplus and a widening services deficit in 2010.

Monthly review

• The president, Laurent Gbagbo, has said that the presidential election will take place before the end of the year.
• However, concerns have remained that delays in completing the reunification of the state administration could prevent the election being held this year.
• A 8,000-strong force, comprising troops from the national army and rebel forces, has started deploying across Cote d'Ivoire in accordance with the Ouagadougou peace accord.
• The government has revised the 2009 budget to incorporate the fiscal targets agreed in the new PRGF. It projects a moderate rise in the wage bill and a substantial increase in debt repayments.
• The government has started to pay down its substantial arrears to domestic suppliers in an operation supported by the IMF and the World Bank.
• Work has started on a new gas-fired power station that, once it becomes operational in December, is set to boost Cote d'Ivoire's electricity production from 210 mw to 320 mw.
• Work has been completed on a CFAfr26bn (US$52m) project to expand Abidjan airport's capacity to 2m passengers/year.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49;15;47
NAICS Code: 22;23;48