Country Report Cote d'Ivoire November 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The holding of the presidential election, which will be delayed until early 2010 for administrative reasons, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability.
• The incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo, is a strong contender for re-election, but he will face a major challenge from Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedie.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results. The new government may have difficulty demobilising militias.
• The government is expected to meet most of the targets agreed in the IMF-supported three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF), which could pave the way for large external debt write-offs in 2011.
• Assuming that political stability is maintained, real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate from an estimated 3.4% in 2009 to 4% in 2010 and 4.8% in 2011 as reconstruction work speeds up and agricultural production recovers.
• Inflation is forecast to rise from an estimated average of 2% in 2009 to 3.5% in 2010 as a result of strong domestic demand, then to fall to 3% in 2011 owing to better transport and retail infrastructure.
• The current-account surplus is expected to widen from an estimated 1.2% of GDP in 2009 to 1.9% of GDP in 2010, before moving into a deficit of 1.7% of GDP in 2011 as imports of goods and services rise steeply.

Monthly review

• The presidential election, which had been due to take place on November 29th, has been delayed again, although no new date has yet been announced, while the electoral commission resolves the status of 1m suspect voters.
• The UN Group of Experts, which was appointed in 2005 to monitor the UN Security Council's arms embargo against Cote d'Ivoire, has published its latest report, warning that both sides are re-arming in violation of the embargo.
• As a result of this report, the UN Security Council has extended the arms embargo, travel and financial restrictions against certain individuals, and the ban on importing rough diamonds from Cote d'Ivoire for another year.
• The Ministry of Agriculture has carried out a pilot audit of cocoa co-operatives in the eastern town of Aboisso as part of efforts to reform the sector.
• Cote d'Ivoire's gold-mining sector has received a boost with the resumption of production at the Angovia gold mine, 40 km north-west of the political capital, Yamoussoukro.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 1;82;10
NAICS Code: 11;61;212