Country Report Cote d'Ivoire October 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The holding of the presidential election, which could be delayed until early 2010 for administrative reasons, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability.
• The incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo, is a strong contender for re-election, but he will face a major challenge from Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedie.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results. The new government may have difficulty demobilising militias.
• The government is expected to meet most of the targets agreed in the IMF-supported three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF), which could pave the way for large external debt write-offs in 2011.
• Assuming that political stability is maintained, real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate from an estimated 3.2% in 2009 to 4% in 2010 and 4.8% in 2011 as reconstruction work speeds up and agricultural production recovers.
• Inflation is forecast to rise from an estimated average of 2% in 2009 to 3.5% in 2010 as a result of strong domestic demand, then to fall to 3% in 2011 owing to better transport and retail infrastructure.
• The current-account surplus is expected to widen from an estimated 0.3% of GDP in 2009 to 0.9% of GDP in 2010, before moving into a deficit of 1.1% of GDP in 2011 as imports of goods and services rise steeply.

Monthly review

• The provisional voter register has been completed and copies have been distributed to the main political parties so that they can verify its authenticity.
• The main problem with the new electoral register has been that 2.8m out of a total of 6.4m voters were not previously in any official register, which could lead to fraud allegations by some political parties.
• The delay in completing the electoral register has intensified concerns that the election deadline will have to be postponed once again, but no announcement has yet been made.
• The government has reached a preliminary agreement with the London Club of private creditors to restructure CFAfr1.3trn (US$2.85bn) of debt, which would involve a new bond with a six-year grace period.
• The coffee/cocoa sector's management committee (Comite de gestion de la filiere cafe-cacao, CGFCC) has announced new measures to increase output, including planting new trees, higher reference prices and lower export taxes.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 1
NAICS Code: 11