Country Report Cote d'Ivoire September 2008

Outlook for 2008-09

• The holding of the presidential election, scheduled to take place on November 30th, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving pol-itical stability, as it is intended to bring an end to the country's political crisis.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• As long as the political crisis continues, economic policy will focus on keeping the economy afloat, leaving long-overdue reforms to the next government.
• Assuming that political stability improves, real GDP growth will rise by a modest 2.5% in 2008 and 3.8% in 2009, supported by a recovery in the oil sector and the peace dividend.
• Inflation is forecast to rise to an average of 5% in 2008, in line with higher world food and energy prices, before declining to 3% in 2009 as food and energy prices fall.
• The current account is forecast to post a surplus equivalent to 3.5% of GDP in 2008 and 0.8% of GDP in 2009, owing to a widening trade surplus supported by high commodity prices.

Monthly review

• Ongoing delays in launching the process to identify and register voters have increased concerns that the planned November presidential election will have to be rescheduled.
• Supplementary public hearings—known as audiences foraines de rattrapage—to determine the identity of Ivorians without official documentation have been launched, which will last until September 12th.
• The UN has launched a US$5m programme to provide technical and vocational training to former combatants, as well as employment on public works projects to Ivorian youths.
• The UN Security Council has extended the mandate of UNOCI for a further six months, until January 31st 2009.
• The government has sold a 50.5% stake in the national airline, Societe Nouvelle Air Ivoire (SN Air Ivoire), to private Ivorian investors, who have pledged to recapitalise it and re-launch services by the end of 2008.
• Five ministers are to be questioned over their alleged involvement in corrupt activities in the cocoa-coffee sector as part of an ongoing investigation.
• The government has signed an accord with a private power company, Energie Electrique Ivoirienne (EEI), to build a 120-mw power station, which will be mainly financed by the Libyan African Investment Corporation (LAICO).

Source: Country Report