Country Report Cote d'Ivoire September 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The holding of the presidential election, scheduled to take place in November? 2009, will continue to be a necessary condition for improving the country's long-term political stability.
• The incumbent, Laurent Gbagbo, is a strong contender for re-election, but he will face a major challenge from Alassane Ouattara and Henri Konan Bedie.
• Political instability may continue after the poll if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• The country was awarded an IMF-supported three-year poverty reduction and growth facility (PRGF) in March 2009, which could pave the way for large external debt write-offs in late 2010.
• Real GDP is forecast to grow by just 3.2% in 2009 as the global economic downturn and weak commodity prices affect economic activity, before accelerating to 4% in 2010 as reconstruction work speeds up.
• Inflation is forecast to fall from an average of 6.3% in 2008 to 2% in 2009 and 3.5% in 2010 as a result of lower international food and oil prices.
• The current account is expected to move into deficit over the forecast period, recording shortfalls of 0.2% of GDP in 2009 and 0.8% in 2010, largely as a result of a narrowing trade surplus and a larger services deficit in 2010.

Monthly review

• Delays have continued with the preparation of the presidential election, intensifying concerns that it will not go ahead as scheduled on November? 29th.
• The registration of candidates for the presidential election has officially started and will end on October 16th.
• The process of demobilising over 40,000 rebel and militia fighters has continued to advance slowly, and most political leaders have accepted that it will not be completed ahead of the presidential poll.
• According to the local press, the IMF has raised concerns about the government's conduct of economic policy, in particular that the fiscal revenue and execution targets are likely to be missed during the second half of 2009.
• The government has held talks with the London Club of private creditors to restructure an estimated ???2bn (US$2.9bn) of debt. A deal could be reached before the end of the year.
• Cocoa exports in the 2008/09 season (October-September) are expected to drop by nearly 30% to 1m tonnes owing to bad weather conditions, ageing plantations and constraints in the existing marketing system.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 1
NAICS Code: 11