Cote d'Ivoire Business Forecast Report Q3 2008

Publication Date	May 2008
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	51
ISBN Number	1756-7971
Product Code	BMI02083

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Summary

Politics to Limit Growth Potential Despite the relative improvement in the political climate since the signing of the Ouagadougou peace agreement on March 007, we believe that the risks to political stability and the successful holding of the presidential elections will remain to the downside in 008. Furthermore, we do not entirely discount the possibility of a renewed outbreak of violence, especially in the event of allegations of electoral fraud. That said, we believe that Cte d'Ivoire's economy has the potential to achieve a significant revival over our five-year forecast period. Aside from significant base effects following years of stagnant growth, a reviving cocoa industry and further improvements in political stability and investor confidence will be the main drivers of growth going forward. In light of surging commodity prices, the government is likely to pay particular attention to the development of the country's extractive industries over the coming years, which are likely to boost FDI inflows and economic growth.

Apart from threats to domestic security, ongoing uncertainties regarding policy formation are also factors that will continue to negatively impact on the country's risk profile. Without the elections completed and a new government in place, investors will remain sceptical about the authorities' capacity to implement much-needed structural changes to the economy and the business environment.

Perhaps most importantly, the current government still has no effective control over the northern parts of the country, impeding any country-wide reform efforts. Indeed, the UN highlighted in January that former rebel commanders in the north have been reluctant to transfer their control to personnel appointed by the government, creating inefficient parallel administrative structures.

Following years of civil conflict, Cte d'Ivoire's creditworthiness has experienced a lift in the wake of stabilising political conditions and improving growth prospects. Nevertheless, as long as the elections are not concluded, risks to political stability and policy continuity will remain to the downside, weighing on Cte d'Ivoire's international credit profile. Furthermore, aside from domestic challenges, deteriorating external conditions are likely to drag on the country's ability to honour its foreign obligations over the course of 008.

The country's unstable business environment will not only remain a key risk to the country's economy over the course of 2008 and 2009, but will also represent the main obstacle to significantly higher growth rates over our forecast period. Indeed, the political stalemate has taken a heavy toll on Cte d'Ivoire's business environment: aside from a frail physical infrastructure and low education levels, the country's institutions, especially the judicial system, remain weak and plagued by corruption.

Moreover, personal security on the ground is likely to remain compromised by high crime levels and inefficient law enforcement over the medium term, thus weighing on the country's true growth potential in the years to come.

Content

Executive Summary
- Politics to Limit Growth Potential
Chapter 1: Political Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- Bmi Political Risk Ratings
- Domestic Politics
- Elections 2008: Still Chasing Shadows
- Given The Threats to Domestic Security and The Effectiveness of The Government's Policymaking Process, We
- Believe That Cte D'Ivoire's Short-Term Political Risk Rating Will Not Experience Any Significant Upside over The
- Course of 2008
Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
- SWOT Analysis
- Bmi Economic Risk Ratings
- Economic Activity
- Growth Prospects Contingent on Politics
- following Years of Civil War and Political Deadlock, We Believe That Cte D'Ivoire's Real Gdp Growth Rate Will
- Increase Noticeably over The Coming Years
List of Tables
- Table: Cte D`Ivoire - Economic Activity
- Monetary Policy
- Inflationary Risks Heading up
- Rising Food Prices and Strengthening Economic Growth in Cte D'Ivoire Will Lead to A Noticeable Rise in Headline
- Inflation in 2008
List of Tables
- Table: Cte D`Ivoire - Monetary Policy
- Foreign Debt Policy
- Credit Profile Improving but Risks Remain
- following Years of Civil Conflict, Cte D'Ivoire's Creditworthiness Has Experienced A Lift in The Wake of Stabilising
- Political Conditions and Improving Growth Prospects
List of Tables
- Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
- Table: Cte D`Ivoire - Foreign Debt
- Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
- Regional Inflation Outlook
- Global Food Inflation: Ssa Implications
- Elevated Global Food Prices Are Likely to Affect Sub-Saharan Africa More Severely than The Wider Developing World
List of Tables
- Table: Cte D`Ivoire - Exchange Rate Policy
Chapter 3: Special Report
- Business Outlook for Global Frontier Markets
- Growing Fast on The New Frontier
- The 41 States That Bmi Examines in A New Report on Our Online Service May Make up Only A Small Slice of The
- World Economy, but They Possess Characteristics That Will See Them Gain Importance in The Eyes of Investors
- and Global Businesses over The Coming Years
List of Tables
- Table: Frontier Markets - Key Data and Projections for Top 10 Countries
- Frontier Investment
- Potential and Pitfalls
- The Spectacular Macroeconomic Performance of Frontier Markets in Recent Years Has Been Matched by Mildly
- Successful Efforts to Deepen Capital Markets
List of Tables
- Table: Gdp per Capita, US$ (in Order of % Increase)
- Table: Diversify through Frontier Markets - Correlation Coefficients January 2004-April 2008
- Table: Frontier Market Indices
- Regional Overview
- Laos
- Neighbouring Economies The Key to Growth
- Laos's Gdp Growth Has Been Boosted in Recent Years as Neighbours China, Thailand and Vietnam Compete for
- Its Natural Resources
- Yemen
- Huge Potential, but Don't Bank on Gcc Membership
- Markets Do Not Come Much More Frontier than Yemen, and, as Would Be Expected, There Is Huge Potential for
- Development, with The Prospect of Eventual Gcc Membership Likely to Act A Key Investment Pull
List of Tables
- Table: Yemen - Economic Activity
- Democratic Republic of The Congo
- Mining Industry to Drive Growth
- The Democratic Republic of The Congo's Mining Industry Will Be A Key Driver of Growth and Is Likely to Attract
- Significant Levels of Fdi, with Our Real Gdp Forecasts Standing at 8.3% and 7.9% in 2008 and 2009, Respective Ly
List of Tables
- Table: Democratic Republic of The Congo - Economic Activity
- Cuba
- Investment Prospects after Fidel
- The Accession of A New Leadership Structure in Cuba Has Sparked Excitement That The 45-Year-Old Trade
- Embargo with The US May Be Lifted and Cuba May Move toward Market Liberalisation
List of Tables
- Table: Cuba Macroeconomic Data and Forecasts
- Mongolia
- Minerals to Drive Economic Boom
- Mongolia Is in The Midst of A Massive Resource-LED Economic Boom That Should Lift Gdp Growth into The Double
- Digits and Underpin Robust Increases in Exports and Inflows of Foreign Investment Capital over The Long Term
List of Tables
- Table: Mongolia - Economic Activity
Chapter 4: Business Environment
- SWOT Analysis
- Bmi Business Environment Risk Ratings
- Business Environment Outlook
List of Tables
- Table: Bmi Business and Operational Risk Ratings
- Table: Bmi Legal Framework Ratings
- Institutions
- Infrastructure
- Market Orientation
List of Tables
- Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual Fdi Inflows
- Table: Bmi Trade Ratings
- Table: Top Export Destinations
- Operational Risk