Country Report Cote d'Ivoire June 2008

Outlook for 2008-09

• The holding of presidential and legislative elections will continue to be a necessary condition for improving political stability, as they are intended to bring an end to the country's political crisis, which is now in its sixth year.
• Political instability may continue after the polls if there is widespread electoral fraud or if the main political parties do not accept the results.
• As long as the political crisis continues, economic policy will focus on keeping the economy afloat, leaving long-overdue reforms to the next government.
• Assuming that political stability improves, real GDP growth will accelerate to 2.5% in 2008 and 3.7% in 2009, owing to a recovery in the oil sector and the peace dividend.
• Inflation is forecast to rise to an average of 4.4% in 2008, in line with higher world food and energy prices, and to 3.7% in 2009, owing mainly to imported inflation as a result of the forecast weakening of the CFA franc.

Monthly review

• The government has brought an end to eight months of public hearings during which birth certificates were issued to enable people to register to vote.
• The government has warned that there is a significant shortfall to finance the election and there is concern that the disbursement of donor funds could be delayed due to strict donor conditionalities.
• The demobilisation of rebel troops has progressed and by the end of May 2,600 former combatants had been regrouped, of which 1,200 had opted to join the national army and 1,400 to be demobilised.
• Some rebel commanders have expressed their opposition to the demobilisation process, indicating dissent within rebel forces.
• According to initial official estimates, the total cost of post-conflict reconstruction and the reinsertion of former combatants will reach an estimated CFAfr2.5trn (US$5.9bn) over the period 2009-13.
• A new committee has been set up by the prime minister to oversee well over-due reform of the cocoa and coffee sectors.
• Association nationale des producteurs de cafe-cacao de Cote d'Ivoire (ANAPROCI) has announced that cocoa production is expected to do well in 2007/08, owing to an increase in reference prices.
• Compagnie ivoirienne de production d’electricite (CIPREL) and the government have signed an agreement to increase the generating capacity of a power station near Abidjan from 210 mw to 320 mw by 2009.

Source: Country Report