Egypt Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Political Outlook
  • The Gamal Mubarak Question
  • Gamal Mubarak's veiled criticism of the US at the National Democratic Party conference suggests that a
  • government led by him could be more populist than the current regime However, we do not anticipate any
  • significant deterioration in relations with the White House
  • Table: Cabinet List (January 2006)
  • Foreign Policy
  • Relations With Hamas Shaky But Sustainable
  • In spite of recent tensions with Hamas and pressure from the US, Egypt will likely maintain reasonably friendly
  • relations with the ruling Palestinian party, in order to preserve its own role as a mediator and keep its domestic
  • population happy
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • Outlook Still Rosy
  • Economic Activity
  • Broad-Based Growth Looks Sustainable
  • Real GDP growth looks set to outstrip both the government's and our forecasts this year, coming in at an impressive
  • 68%, compared with our previous forecast of 57% We have also revised our 2007 forecast upwards, from
  • 47% to 58%
  • Table: Economic Indicators
  • Balance of Payments
  • Staying In Surplus
  • We see the current account remaining in surplus throughout the forecast period, although as domestic demand
  • continues to grow strongly, imports will keep it around the 20% of GDP mark
  • Table: Balance Of Payments
  • Exchange Rate Policy
  • Pound To Float From End-2007?
  • The pound will remain stable for the next year or so, with a slight upside bias We expect the central bank to
  • allow further exchange rate flexibility at the end of next year, which should see the pound begin to appreciate
  • more rapidly
  • Table: Monetary Policy
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • What And Where Are The Risks
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Middle East and Africa
  • A Mixed Bag
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
  • BMI Sovereign Ratings Index Methodology
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • BMI Core Scenario
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Busness Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Table: Employment Indicators
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: Middle East & Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Table: Egypt, Annual FDI Inflows
  • Trade Regime
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Table: Value of Exports By Category US$mn
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Food & Drink
  • With the entry of Dubai-based retailer Spinneys and the Mansour Group's foray into the discount sector with their
  • Kheer Zaman banner, it is clear that the Egyptian mass grocery retail sector is taking off We are forecasting growth
  • of an incredible 1042% for Egypt's MGR sales, to reach US$539bn in 2010 Although hypermarkets will continue
  • to make a major contribution, discount stores will also contribute significantly to this growth, as sales through this
  • format are expected to grow by a whopping 150% to 2010 In fact, the discount sector is expected to be one of the
  • most dynamic in the Middle East
  • Table: Food & Drink Indicators
  • Infrastructure
  • The overall outlook for the construction sector in Egypt is positive, notably for 2006, with BMI forecasting 81%
  • growth Further, it is expected that the industrial zone in Egypt would attract investments to the tune of US$10bn
  • in the coming years
  • Table: Infrastructure Data and Forecasts