Egypt Infrastructure Report Q1 2009

Publication Date	March 2009
Publisher	Business Monitor
Product Type	Report
Pages	86
ISBN Number	1752-5330
Product Code	BMI03611

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Summary

We have revised down our forecasts for construction sector growth this quarter, due to the deteriorating global economic environment. Egypt is not as vulnerable as some regional countries to the current negative global trends, but it is by no means escaping unscathed. The Daily News Egypt quotes government statistics as saying that 200,000 jobs were lost in 2008, and with growth slowing sharply, we would expect to see more cost-cutting in the private sector, translating into more job losses - probably in the real estate/construction, tourism and export-oriented industries. We have revised down our forecast for real construction sector growth in 2009 to 4.0%, from 10.6%. Nonetheless, our forecast for construction sector growth is above that for the economy as a whole. This is due to supportive policies from the government, as the Mubarak administration seeks to maintain economic and political stability.

The government has eliminated customs duties on capital goods (from between 2% and 5%), as part of a EGP15bn stimulus package, which should lend support to infrastructure. We predict that construction sector growth will be at - or slightly above - 5% in real terms in 2010.

Risks to our forecasts are largely to the downside. Much depends on how prolonged the global economic downturn is, which could have a profound effect on both the demand for (and the financing of) private sector-orchestrated construction activity considerably beyond the end of 2009. Other risks include terrorism, particularly given the Egyptian government's closeness to the West in an environment where the Israeli invasion of Gaza will likely radicalise opinion.

In December, Oriental Weavers, the world's largest carpet manufacturer, said that it was delaying construction of a new US$235.2mn factory due to the worldwide financial crisis. Originally planned for a mid 2009 opening, the company has delayed the new plant until sometime in 2010. Also in December 2008, Egyptian President Mubarak officially opened the new terminal at Cairo Airport. The US$561mn new Terminal 3 will increase passenger capacity from 10mn to 22mn per year. The 1.7mn square foot terminal contains more than 160 elevators, escalators and moving walkways and has enough parking capacity for 3,000 cars.

Content

Market Overview
Global
Weeding Out Possible White Elephants
Mega-Urban Regions: Opportunities And Challenges For Infrastructure
Mega-Urban Regions: Investment Opportunities And Risks
SWOT Analysis
Egypt Infrastructure Industry SWOT
Egypt Political SWOT
Egypt Economic SWOT
Egypt Business Environment SWOT
Major Infrastructure Developments And Key Projects
New And Ongoing Projects
Airports
Ports
Rail Networks
Road Networks
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure Overview
New And Ongoing Projects
Power Plants And Transmission Grids
Oil And Gas Pipelines
Construction Overview
New And Ongoing Projects
Residential Construction
Industrial Construction
Tourism Construction
Major Projects
Industry Forecast Scenario
Business Environment
Regional Overview- Middle East and Africa
Business Environment Ratings Table
Limits Of Potential Returns
Project Finance Ratings: Outlook For Middle East
Risk To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Foreign Direct Investment
Labour Force
Legal Framework
Tax Regime
Macroeconomic Outlook
Political Outlook Domestic Politics
Company Monitor
Arab Contractors
Orascom Construction Industries
Country Snapshot: Egypt Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Sources
Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Overview
Project Finance Ratings Methodology
Construction Risks
Operating Risks - Commercial Construction
Operating Risks - Energy and Utilities
Operating Risks -Transport
List of Tables
- Table: The World's 30 Largest Urban Agglomerations
- Table: The World's Richest Cities In 2020 By Gdp
- Table: The World's Fastest Growing Urban Areas
- Table: Egypt - Major Infrastructure Projects - Transport
- Table: Egypt - Major Infrastructure Projects - Utilities
- Table: Egypt - Major Infrastructure Projects - Construction
- Table: Egypt--Economic And Construction Data
- Table: Regional Infrastructure Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Design and Construction Rating
- Table: Commissioning and Operating Rating
- Table: Overall Project Finance Rating
- Table: Egypt - Economic Activity
- Table: Egypt - Key Players
- Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
- Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
- Table: Education, 2002-2005
- Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2010
- Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
- Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
- Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
- Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators

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Product features / use

Level	General Industry Strategies
Data	Detailed Market Forecasts
Profiles	Profiles of Key Companies
Features	Contains SWOT Analysis
Extra Info	Consumer Trends Highlighted