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Country Report Equatorial Guinea February 2012

  • Publication Date:February 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:23

Country Report Equatorial Guinea February 2012

Outlook for 2012-16

  • The major threat to political stability in 2012-16 is the risk of the elderly president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, leaving office suddenly, owing to either ill health or a coup, which could create a destabilising power contest.
  • Policy in 2012-16 will be guided in principle by the government's medium-term strategy paper, the National Economic Development Plan: Horizon 2020, which targets economic diversification and poverty reduction.
  • The difficult business environment, which constrains private-sector investment, is expected to persist; in particular, corruption among officials will remain rampant.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the fiscal account to remain in surplus, underpinned by rising hydrocarbons output for most of the forecast period; oil and gas receipts form the bulk of government revenue.
  • The earlier-than-expected commencement of output from the Aseng oilfield will boost GDP growth in 2012 to 6.8%. Growth will remain robust in 2013-14, before slowing in 2015-16 on the back of a lull in new oilfield start-ups.
  • Despite the weaker outlook for the CFA franc in the first part of the forecast period, subdued global commodity prices will help to reduce average annual inflation to 5.6% in 2012-16.
  • Given our forecasts for GDP growth and the oil sector, we expect the current-account deficit to average 3.5% of GDP in 2012-14, rising to 7.4% of GDP in 2015-16.

Monthly review

  • Mr Obiang Nguema's chairmanship of the African Union (AU) ended in January. The highlight of the president's 12-month tenure came last June, when his country hosted the 17th Ordinary Summit of the AU in Malabo.
  • The largely successful organisation of the Africa Cup of Nations football tournament, which Equatorial Guinea co-hosted with Gabon, has provided positive publicity by showcasing the country's infrastructural achievements.
  • Equatorial Guinea failed to garner much praise in a recent report from the IFC and World Bank focussing on the importance of good business regulation.
  • A third mobile-phone operator, Guinea Ecuatorial Comunicaciones Sociedad Anonima (GECOMSA), was launched on January 24th. The government has a 51% stake, with the rest owned by the Chinese government.
  • A Norwegian company, Reservoir Exploration Technology, has been given the go-ahead by Hess Equatorial Guinea to conduct an ocean-bottom cable survey on the Elon field area of the Okume field.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 48;49
NAICS Code: 22;517

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available

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