Country Report Equatorial Guinea March 2009

Summary

The president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, is expected to be re-elected by a landslide later this year, supported by harsh repressive measures and the support of a significant proportion of the Fang ethnic group.
Despite apparent underlying stability, the security situation could deteriorate rapidly if ill-health were to force MrObiang to step down suddenly, given the personality-based nature of the regime.
Following an attack on the presidential palace in February, there is a higher risk that Nigerian rebel movements operating in the Niger Delta could attack installations in Equatorial Guinea.
Economic diversification will remain the government's main economic policy objective, but the regime will be forced to re-evaluate its economic development programme in line with lower oil prices and reduced output.
Real GDP is expected to contract by 2.2% in 2009 and 1% in 2010, as no new oilfields are scheduled to come on stream and production at the Zafiro oilfield will continue to decline.
Inflation is forecast to fall from an estimated 7.5% in 2008 to an average rate of4.5% in 2009 and 4% in 2010, reflecting the decline in global food and oilprices.
After posting an estimated surplus equivalent to 7.4% of GDP in 2008, the current account is expected to record a deficit equivalent to 16.3% of GDP in 2009 and 7.6% of GDP in 2010, owing to a dramatic fall in average oil prices.

Equatorial Guinea has once again been shaken by an apparent coup attempt. On February 17th a large group of heavily armed men arrived by boat in the capital, Malabo, and sought to take over the presidential palace.
The government has claimed that the recent attack was not an attempted coup, and instead has accused a Nigerian rebel group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), of carrying out the attack.
The reputation of the regional central bank, Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale (BEAC), has been damaged by reports that it faces substantial losses on its investments in international financial markets.
A US-based independent oil company, Noble Energy, has announced that it has made a significant oil discovery at the Carmen prospect in Block O.
The facilities at the new Malabo deepwater port have been officially inaugurated. The new port will facilitate trading as, until now, containers had to be brought to land mostly with the support of smaller boats.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;47
NAICS Code: 52;48