Country Report Gabon February 2010

Outlook for 2010-11

• The new president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, will continue to consolidate his rule over the country and the ruling Parti democratique gabonais (PDG) after winning the hotly disputed presidential election held in late August.
• The civil unrest that followed the announcement of Mr Bongo's election victory has now settled, but grievances against his rule or a failure to raise living standards could lead to fresh outbursts of violence.
• A recently formed opposition alliance, Coalition des groupes et partis politiques pour l'alternance, may struggle to maintain unity among its diverse members in the run-up to the next legislative poll, due in 2011.
• Real GDP is forecast to rebound to 2.4% in 2010, in line with higher oil prices (allowing increased public investment) and the recovery of mining and forestry output, before falling to 2.2% in 2011 owing to declining oil output.
• Average inflation is forecast to rise to 4.5% in 2010 as a result of higher fuel prices and stronger domestic demand, before falling to 3% in 2011 owing to a moderate fall in imported inflation.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to widen from an estimated 4% of GDP in 2009 to 10.2% of GDP in 2010, before narrowing to 6.2% of GDP in 2011 as a result of the deteriorating trade balance.

Monthly review

• A US Senate subcommittee investigation into the Bongo family's alleged financial impropriety will greatly undermine the credibility of the new president's highly publicised anti-corruption drive.
• The government has increased the effective national minimum take-home pay to CFAfr150,ooo (approximately US$310) per month in a bid to improve living standards. This applies to both the public and the private sector.
• The increase in benefits will help to boost private consumption but risks stoking already rising inflationary pressures, as a similar increase in 2006 did to prices in 2007. We see consumer price inflation averaging 4.5% in 2010.
• The government and the national water and electricity provider, Societe d'eau et d'electricite du Gabon (SEEG), have signed a new financing arrangement to improve the supply of drinking water to the capital, Libreville.
• Feasibility studies are under way—or have recently been concluded—for the development of new, externally-financed power-generation capacity.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49
NAICS Code: 22

• Highlights
• Outlook for 2010-11: Domestic politics
• Outlook for 2010-11: International relations
• Outlook for 2010-11: Policy trends
• Outlook for 2010-11: Fiscal policy
• Outlook for 2010-11: Monetary policy
• Outlook for 2010-11: International assumptions
• Outlook for 2010-11: Economic growth
• Outlook for 2010-11: Inflation
• Outlook for 2010-11: Exchange rates
• Outlook for 2010-11: External sector
• Outlook for 2010-11: Forecast summary
• The political scene: A US Senate report is damaging for the Bongos
• Economic policy: The minimum wage is set almost to double
• Economic policy: The higher RMM is set to boost demand and inflation
• Economic performance: SEEG and the government sign a new deal despite frosty ties
• Economic performance: Plans for new power plants are advanced
• Economic performance: The Grand Poubara dam will boost economic growth
• Economic performance: Hopes are high for two new factories in Moanda
• Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
• Data and charts: Quarterly data
• Data and charts: Monthly data
• Data and charts: Annual trends charts
• Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
• Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
• Basic data
• Political structure