Country Report Gabon October 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The death of the Gabonese president, Omar Bongo Ondimba, has plunged the country into a period of political uncertainty. His son and president-elect, Ali Bongo Ondimba, is expected to be sworn in as president in October.
• He will rely on the majority that the ruling Parti democratique gabonais (PDG) has in the National Assembly to pass legislation and is expected to co-opt some members of the opposition into government.
• A new cabinet will be appointed shortly after Mr Ali Bongo is sworn in. Although he will maintain several of the PDG barons in prominent positions, he is also likely to appoint several new, more technocratic members.
• Real GDP is forecast to return to positive growth of 3.3% in 2010 in line with a moderate rise in oil production and the recovery of mining and forestry output, before falling to 0.7% in 2011 owing to a further drop in oil output.
• Average inflation is forecast to rise to 3.5% in 2010 as a result of higher fuel prices and stronger domestic demand, before falling to 3% in 2011 owing to a moderate fall in imported inflation.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to widen from an estimated 4.7% of GDP in 2009 to 8.5% of GDP in 2010, before narrowing sharply to 2.1% of GDP as a result of the deteriorating trade balance.

Monthly review

• The Constitutional Court has finished the recount of votes in the August 2009 presidential election and is expected to announce its final verdict in October.
• The opposition called for a three-day general strike to protest against alleged fraud, but it was weakly followed indicating that most Gabonese accept Mr Ali Bongo's election as a fait accompli.
• The currently tense political climate may make trade union leaders opposed to Mr Ali Bongo's election feel less inclined to honour the social truce agreed in May 2009 and encourage them to start a new wave of industrial action.
• A new scandal has further undermined the reputation of the regional central bank, Banque des Etats de l'Afrique centrale, with the revelation that CFAfr15bn (US$33m) has been embezzled.
• Gabon has been ranked 158th out of 183 countries in terms of the business operating environment in an annual survey published by the World Bank, Doing Business 2010.
• According to recent data from the Ministry of Finance, inflation continued at a crawling pace in August 2009, with consumer prices up by just 1% on a year-on-year basis.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49;48
NAICS Code: 22;517