Country Report Gabon September 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The death of the Gabonese president, Omar Bongo Ondimba, has plunged the country into a period of political uncertainty.
• Despite the continuation of protests from the other presidential candidates, Mr Bongo's son, Ali Bongo Ondimba, is expected to be sworn in as the country's new president.
• He will rely on the majority that the ruling Parti democratique gabonais (PDG) has in the National Assembly to pass legislation and is expected to co-opt some members of the opposition into government.
• A new cabinet will be appointed shortly after Mr Ali Bongo is sworn in. Although he will maintain several of the PDG barons in prominent positions, he is also likely to appoint several new, more technocratic members.
• Real GDP is forecast to contract by 2.8% in 2009 as the global economic downturn and political instability hit activity in the non-oil sectors, and to grow by 3.3% in 2010 as activity in the mining and forestry sectors picks up.
• Average annual inflation is expected to fall to 3% in 2009, reflecting lower global food and oil prices, before rising again in 2010, to 3.5%, driven by commodity price increases and strong domestic demand.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to narrow to 4.7% of GDP in 2009 owing to the fall in exports caused by low average oil prices, before widening to 8.5% of GDP in 2010 as a result of higher commodity prices.

Monthly review

• Mr Ali Bongo has been announced as the winner of the presidential election, which took place on August 30th, having won almost 42% of the vote.
• The other main presidential candidates, including Pierre Mamboundou and Andre Mba Obame, have rejected the results of the election, claiming that there had been widespread electoral fraud.
• Significant social unrest followed the announcement of Mr Ali Bongo's victory, especially in the commercial capital, Port Gentil, but the army and the security services have kept the situation under control.
• The electorate voted broadly along ethnic lines, with all the candidates winning in their respective strongholds.
• Acts of violence have forced Total, the French oil major, to move a large proportion of its expatriate workforce from Port Gentil to offshore platforms and to Libreville, the capital, which has disrupted oil production.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;70;10;49
NAICS Code: 52;72;212;22;11