Country Risk Service Gabon June 2011 Updater
Market Research Report

Country Risk Service Gabon June 2011 Updater Market Research Report

Overview

The president, Ali Bongo Ondimba, will continue to consolidate his rule over the country and the ruling Parti democratique gabonais. He has survived a challenge to his presidency by the runner-up in the August 2009 election, with the resulting brief unrest having now settled. Trade unions, however, are increasingly coercing the government into potentially expensive concessions. To encourage investment in the declining oil sector, the government is considering raising to as high as 50% the share that foreign-partner operators can own in projects.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

In order to give the country time to introduce a biometric electoral roll and focus on the high-profile Africa Cup of Nations football tournament in January 2012, the president has asked the constitutional court to decide if a 12-month delay to the legislative election-to December 2012-is possible.

Economic policy outlook

A prime ministerial committee has identified some 1,300 illegal foreign workers in the country's oil sector who face imminent expulsion. Skilled workers will be kept on until they can be replaced by a suitably-trained Gabonese.

Economic forecast

The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that real GDP growth will ease to a still robust 5% in 2011, supported by a major new oil well that came on stream in December 2010, and stronger investment and legislation for higher take-home pay that will boost private consumption. Labour unrest across various sectors will remain a risk to productivity. The current-account surplus is forecast to narrow from an estimated 25% of GDP in 2010 to 22% in 2011, and then to 20.3% by 2012 as commodity prices fall. The fiscal surplus is forecast to improve to an average of 8.1% in 2011-12.

• Gabon at a glance: 2011-12
  • Risk assessment
  • Rating definitions
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Political stability
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Election watch
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: International relations
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Policy trends
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Fiscal policy
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Monetary policy
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Economic growth
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Inflation
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: Exchange rates
  • Central scenario for 2011-12: External sector
  • Key risk indicators
  • Ratings summary
  • Quarterly indicators
  • International assumptions summary
  • Economic structure
  • Public finances
  • Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
  • Financial sector
  • Current account
  • International liquidity
  • Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
  • External trade
  • External financing requirement
  • External debt stock
  • External debt service