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Country Report Ghana June 2012

  • Publication Date:June 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:23

Country Report Ghana June 2012

Outlook for 2012-16

  • The elections due in December 2012 are expected to be close-run. The incumbents-the president, John Atta Mills, and his ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC)-have been harmed by intra-party squabbles.
  • Whoever emerges from the election period as the victor will face a challenging policy environment as he attempts to manage the revenue and high expectations stemming from the start of production at the Jubilee oilfield.
  • Economic policy during the first half of the forecast period will centre on reducing the fiscal deficit and repaying domestic arrears that have built up. However, as elections in 2016 draw closer, fiscal discipline is expected to slip.
  • As the forecast period progresses, policy focus will shift gradually towards developing the business environment, reducing poverty and extending support for the private sector-especially the non-oil sector.
  • Strong domestic economic prospects across most sectors will be tempered by global uncertainty in the early part of the forecast period. Nevertheless, growth should average around 7.4% in 2012-16.
  • Strong agricultural performance and lower international commodity prices should allow a gradual fall in inflation to 7.8% by 2014, before an uptick in 2015-16 as commodity prices increase and policy loosens ahead of elections.
  • Increases in commodity exports will be offset by falling prices, especially in 2013-14, and the current-account deficit will increase to 12% of GDP in 2014. Growth in oil exports will then see the deficit narrow to 9.6% of GDP in 2016.

Monthly review

  • On May 5th Ghana's Electoral Commission completed a 40-day, countrywide update of the voter register using biometric registration. The preliminary count put the number of registered voters at around 13m.
  • The opposition New Patriotic Party's presidential candidate, Nana Akufo Addo, questioned the government's relationship with China, doubting whether it was adequately protecting Ghana's national interests.
  • The IMF conducted its sixth and seventh reviews of Ghana's extended credit facility in May. The IMF commended Ghana's economic performance in 2011, but warned of growing risks to the economy in 2012.
  • Consumer price inflation increased to 9.3% year on year in May, from 8.7% in the first quarter of 2012. Strong import growth, coupled with a weakening exchange rate, has added to inflationary pressure.
  • The production outlooks for both cocoa and oil are currently looking weaker than previously expected.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 1;49
NAICS Code: 11;22

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available

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