Country Report Ghana October 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The president, John Atta Mills, and his ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) will have to balance honouring their electoral promises against stabilising the economy in a very challenging global and local environment.
• Real GDP growth is forecast to rise modestly to 5.4% in 2010, supported by continued growth in agriculture and services. The start of large-scale oil exports in 2011 will push up economic growth to 12.5%.
• Foreign-exchange earnings from the oil sector will help support the cedi, although persistent fiscal and current-account deficits and low foreign reserves will see the average exchange rate depreciate modestly.
• The effects of expansionary government spending and a weak currency are expected to keep inflation in double digits, although it will decline steadily owing largely to a tighter monetary policy and lower food prices.
• Rising imports as the economy recovers in 2010 will be partly offset by higher remittances from Ghana's large diaspora. The current-account deficit will remain at around 17% of GDP.
• The start of oil exports in 2011 will help bring the current-account deficit down, although growing imports and large profit remittances from the oil sector will keep it relatively high, at 11.5% of GDP.

Monthly review

• The government has been accused by a prominent civil society pressure group, the Committee for Joint Action (CJA), of not doing enough to combat official corruption in Ghana.
• A recent report by a Berlin-based non-governmental organisation, Transparency International, has urged more prompt investigations into alleged corruption and stronger sanctions for violators.
• A British firm, Mabey & Johnson, has admitted bribing several high-profile Ghanaian politicians including some NDC members and a serving minister.
• A World Bank statement commemorating what would have been Ghana's first president's 100th birthday has sparked an economic policy debate.
• Inflation is trending downwards, but there remain limiting factors to further falls, including wage pressures from the civil service and petroleum and utility price increases.
• Private remittances have edged up in recent months, although they remain fragile as Ghanaians working abroad are affected by recession in the West.
• Gold and cocoa exports have continued to perform well, whereas imports have fallen in the wake of the global economic slowdown.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60
NAICS Code: 52