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Country Risk Service Ghana December 2012

  • Publication Date:December 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:23

Country Risk Service Ghana December 2012

Overview

Following his recent re-election as president, John Mahama faces a challenging policy environment, in particular managing the revenue and high expectations arising from the emerging oil sector. Economic policy in the first half of the forecast period will centre on bringing down the large fiscal deficit and repaying domestic arrears, before shifting to developing the business environment, reducing poverty and supporting the private sector-especially the non-oil sector. Strong domestic economic prospects will be tempered by global uncertainty in the early part of the forecast period. Nevertheless, growth should average around 7.5% in 2013-17. Strong agricultural performance and lower international commodity prices should allow a gradual fall in inflation to 7.8% in 2014, before an upturn in 2015-17 as commodity prices increase and policy loosens ahead of elections. Strong export growth will bring down the current-account deficit during the forecast period from 11.2% of GDP in 2013 to 8.8% of GDP in 2017, although declining gold prices in 2015-17 will slow the pace of this decline

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

John Mahama was re-elected president winning 50.7% of the vote on December 7-8th against the 47.7% of his main rival, Nana Akufo-Addo. Some in the opposition have claimed that parts of the voting were fixed, although most observers were happy with the conduct of the election.

Economic policy outlook

The government has been playing up the positive role of the mining sector in the economy. This was with the elections in mind given that the sector has been criticised locally in the past for not contributing enough in taxes

Economic forecast

The local manufacturing sector has struggled in recent year and officials believe that it could export more regionally. However, problems at home including unreliable power supplies have made operations difficult.

Do to the nature of this product there is no table of contents.

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