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Country Risk Service Ghana November 2012 Updater

  • Publication Date:November 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:17

Country Risk Service Ghana November 2012 Updater

Overview

Presidential and legislative elections set for December will be extremely close, but the impact on political stability into the early part of the 2013-17 forecast period should be limited given Ghana's strong democratic track record. The victors will face a challenging policy environment, in particular managing the revenue and high expectations arising from the emerging oil sector.

Economic policy in the first half of the forecast period will centre on bringing down the large fiscal deficit and repaying domestic arrears, before shifting to developing the business environment, reducing poverty and supporting the private sector-especially the non-oil sector. Strong domestic economic prospects will be tempered by global uncertainty in the early part of the forecast period. Nevertheless, growth should average around 7.4% in 2013-17. Strong agricultural performance and lower international commodity prices should allow a gradual fall in inflation to 7.8% in 2014, before an upturn in 2015-17 as commodity prices increase and policy loosens ahead of elections.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

Nana Konadu Agyemang Rawlings has been barred on technical grounds from contesting the presidential election. Questions have been raised over the impartiality of the Electoral Committee, as the ruling National Democratic Congress is likely to benefit from the decision.

Economic policy outlook

Parliament has approved a tax amnesty bill. Reform of the tax system will benefit future revenue collection, but tricky issues still have to be tackled such as the fairest way to tax the vital mining sector.

Economic forecast

Changes to the outlook for gold prices have altered the current-account forecast. The current-account deficit is now expected to fall to 9.6% of GDP in 2014, before increasing to an average of 12.1% in 2016-17 as gold exports decline.

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available

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