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Country Report Cote d'Ivoire July 2011

  • Publication Date:July 2011
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:23

Country Report Cote d'Ivoire July 2011

Outlook for 2011-12

  • The new president, Alassane Ouattara, faces three significant problems: to prevent further violence between rival factions; to manage the fallout from investigations into recent atrocities; and to establish a stable government.
  • A truth and reconciliation commission will investigate the atrocities and might spur occasional political crises if it implicates members of Mr Ouattara's administration.
  • The new coalition government will be handicapped from the outset by the absence of any members of the Front populaire ivoirien, the party of the former president, Laurent Gbagbo, which may stoke political instability.
  • There will be substantial challenges to the maintenance of security; it will be extremely difficult to reconcile political divisions, as the nation has been firmly divided by a bloody civil war.
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts that the economy will shrink in 2011 before recovering in 2012—if political stability can be maintained.
  • We forecast an average inflation rate of 3.3% in 2011 owing to the sanctions imposed because of the political crisis. As global food and fuel prices ease, we forecast that inflation will fall to 2.3% in 2012.

Monthly review

  • The UN has publicly criticised the government for failing to restrain a wave of reprisal attacks. There is growing evidence that former rebels are systematically targeting perceived pro-Gbagbo areas to settle old scores.
  • Investigations into the atrocities committed in the post-election period have entered a new phase with the formal launch of a probe into war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
  • The ICC claims to have evidence of more than 3,000 killings, 72 disappearances, 520 arbitrary arrests and more than 100 rapes. A key focus will be the massacre of as many as 1,000 civilians in Duekoue in late March.
  • The government is pressing ahead with plans to hold legislative elections by the end of the year. Substantial donor support will be needed as the electoral commission's offices have suffered damage worth more than US$2.6m.
  • On June 22nd Mr Ouattara approved the 2011 budget by presidential decree. Around 42% of spending will be debt-servicing, but no indication has been given as to when repayments on the defaulted US$2.3bn bond will resume.
  • Exports of Cote d'Ivoire's second most important commodity—crude oil—have collapsed because of the recent political instability. Exports of crude oil in January-May were 58% lower than in the same period last year.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 89;48;49
NAICS Code: 81;517;22

  • Highlights
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Political stability
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Election watch
    • Outlook for 2011-12: International relations
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Policy trends
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Fiscal policy
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Monetary policy
    • Outlook for 2011-12: International assumptions
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Economic growth
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Inflation
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Exchange rates
    • Outlook for 2011-12: External sector
    • Outlook for 2011-12: Forecast summary
    • The political scene: The backlash increases against Mr Gbagbo's supporters
    • The political scene: The ICC launches a war crimes investigation
    • The political scene: Legislative elections could take place in 2011
    • Economic policy: The 2011 budget is a stop-gap measure
    • Economic policy: Major economic reforms are postponed
    • Economic performance: Oil exports collapse in the first half of 2011
    • Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
    • Data and charts: Quarterly data
    • Data and charts: Monthly data
    • Data and charts: Annual trends charts
    • Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
    • Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
    • Basic data
    • Political structure
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