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Country Risk Service Cote d'Ivoire February 2012 Updater

  • Publication Date:February 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:20

Country Risk Service Cote d'Ivoire February 2012 Updater

Overview

The new president, Alassane Ouattara, faces three significant problems: preventing further violence between rival factions; managing the fallout from investigations into the atrocities; and establishing a stable government. A truth and reconciliation commission is investigating the atrocities; its inquiries could spur political crises if they implicate allies of Mr Ouattara. The economy will bounce back as liquidity returns and spending on reconstruction spurs expansion. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 6.3% in 2012, before it settles down to an average annual growth rate of 5.9% in 2013-16, assuming that political stability can be maintained. A functioning state, secure transport conditions and lower global commodity prices will reduce price pressures. We forecast that inflation will average 2.1% in 2012-14, before picking up in 2015-16 as domestic demand grows.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

Mr Ouattara and a high-level Ivorian delegation made a two-day visit to Paris, where they met the French president and prime minister, emphasising the importance of France as an international partner. France will scale down its long-running military mission in Côte d'Ivoire, Opération licorne, from 1,650 troops to 250-300, and will end its co-operation with the UN Mission in Côte d'Ivoire by July.

Mr Ouattara has received the Chinese foreign minister, who offered a EUR1.5bn interest-free loan and signed bilateral investment accords worth EUR7bn.

Economic policy outlook

Several large traders have boycotted the forward cocoa auctions. They want guarantees that the beans that they eventually receive will match the quality and specifications of the contracts that they purchase.

Economic forecast

There have been no major changes to the economic forecast.

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available

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