Country Report Liberia December 2008

Outlook for 2009-10

The president, Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf, is expected to remain in power over the forecast period but will continue to rely on an ad hoc coalition in parliament to support her reform agenda. The 15,000-strong UN peacekeeping force will remain in Liberia but will continue to gradually draw down its forces. An IMF PRGF (March 2008-March 2011) will guide economic policy. Overall, real GDP growth is forecast to fall to 6% in 2009 and 5.5% in 2010, tracking the moderation in growth in reconstruction, economic revitalisation and new investments. Inflation is forecast to fall to an average of 9.5% in 2009 and 8.5% in 2010 in line with lower international oil and food prices. The strong recovery of exports and weakening import growth will help to stabilise the current-account deficit at US$250m in 2009, before it contracts to US$200m in 2010.

The political scene

The UN Security Council has extended the mandate of the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) for a further year; nonetheless, 1,460 troops will be withdrawn during this time. A number of senior government officials have been dismissed over corruption scandals, and the Liberian Anti-Corruption Commission has finally been launched. Testimonies by key leaders have been heard about their roles in the civil war at the hearing of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission. Charles McArthur Emmanuel, the son of a former Liberian president, Charles Taylor, has been found guilty by a US court of committing torture abroad.

Economic policy

An IMF mission has visited Liberia, commending progress with a number of public-sector reforms, as well as improvements to bank supervision. Liberia has been rated as the most improved country over the last year on the Mo Ibrahim Index of African Governance.

The domestic economy

The award of a contract to mine Liberia's Western Cluster Iron Ore Deposit has run into difficulties in recent months. A US airline, Delta Air, has announced that it is introducing flights from Atlanta in the US to Monrovia, via Cape Verde, in June 2009. A feasibility study for the rehabilitation of the Mount Coffee hydroelectric plant has suggested that it will need to be almost entirely rebuilt, at an estimated cost of US$383m.

Foreign trade and payments

Liberia's trade deficit continued to widen significantly in the first half of 2008, although exports are growing strongly owing to the post-war recovery and the lifting of domestic and international sanctions.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 10;70;47
NAICS Code: 212;72;48