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Country Risk Service Libya February 2012

  • Publication Date:February 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:24

Country Risk Service Libya February 2012

Overview

The declaration of liberation by Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, the chairman of the National Transitional Council (NTC), on October 23rd heralded the beginning of a transition process that is to culminate in parliamentary elections in June 2013. Political uncertainty will remain high as the NTC works to restore security. Emerging tensions between rival militias and between Islamists and secularists are of particular concern given the abundance of weapons still available in the country. The Economist Intelligence Unit estimates that the Libyan economy contracted sharply in 2011on the back of falling oil production and exports. As the political situation stabilises, the hydrocarbons sector will recover steadily, boosting economic performance from 2012.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

The NTC has passed the final version of a law covering elections to the General National Congress (interim parliament). Of the congress's 200 members, 120 will be elected on a first-past-the-post basis with the remaining 80 seats to be allocated on a party-list proportional representation basis.

Economic policy outlook

We have revised our fiscal forecast to take into account greater spending commitments in the early part of the forecast period, owing to higher wages and and a decision by the government to waive electricity tariff payments for domestic consumers in 2011.

Economic forecast

We have revised our current-account balance estimate for 2011 in line with the latest available data, which show that the trade balance recorded a surplus for the year. Our current-account forecasts have also been affected by changes to our oil price assumptions. We now expect the oil price to average US$110/barrel in 2012 and US$103.6/b in 2013.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60
NAICS Code: 52

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available

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