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Country Risk Service Libya October 2012

  • Publication Date:October 2012
  • Publisher:EIU
  • Product Type: Report
  • Pages:23

Country Risk Service Libya October 2012


Political uncertainty will remain high as early post-Qadhafi governments work to restore security and political rivalries play out. A full parliamentary election is scheduled to take place a year after a new constitution has been approved in a referendum. The economy contracted sharply in 2011 on the back of falling oil production and exports. Oil production has recovered rapidly, which, together with reconstruction and, subsequently, development projects, will boost economic performance over the forecast period. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects real GDP growth to average 9.6% in 2013-17.

Key changes from last month

Political outlook

The prime minister-elect, Mustafa Abu Shagur, was ousted from his post after the General National Congress rejected his second proposal for a cabinet. Ali Zidan, a former diplomat, has been appointed as his replacement.

Economic policy outlook

We have revised our fiscal balance forecast on the basis of new actual data for 2011 from the Central Bank of Libya. We forecast that the fiscal account will record a surplus of 4.1% of GDP in 2013 (previously 2.2% of GDP).

Economic forecast

We have revised our GDP forecast on the basis of new nominal and real growth data for 2011 from the Central Bank. We estimate that real GDP will have grown by 92.1% in 2012 and forecast that it will average 9.6% over the forecast period.

Please Note: Due to the Nature of This Report The Toc is Not Available

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