Country Report Morocco June 2009

Summary

The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the political scene to remain generally stable, with no serious challenges to the central role of the king, Mohammed VI.
Parliament will remain weak, with no party having a strong power base, and there will be widespread public disaffection with formal politics, particularly given the continued prominence of the monarchy in decision-making.
Poverty and unemployment will be sources of discontent, and many Moroccans will turn to Islamist political movements as a result, but only a small minority of Moroccans are likely to support militant groups.
Despite improved tax penetration, the budget deficit is expected to average 3.9% of GDP in 2009-10 as weaker GDP growth hits revenue and the government embarks on a major public investment programme.
Real GDP growth will weaken considerably because of the worsening outlook for the EU??

Highlights
Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
The political scene: PAM's withdrawal leaves government without majority
The political scene: Municipal election campaign is disrupted
The political scene: Fluidity of party loyalties adds to public disenchantment
Economic policy: Government proceeds with public investment plan
Economic policy: Controversial elections are held at the CGEM
Economic policy: Leading microfinance institutions merge
Economic performance: Tourism receipts fall sharply in first four months of 2009
Economic performance: Unemployment is stable at 9.6% in the first quarter
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure