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Country Report Namibia

Publication Date June 2008
Publisher EIU
Product Type Report
Pages 20
ISBN Number not applicable
Product Code EIU00013
Price

£155.00
approximately: $274 | €197

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Summary

Outlook for 2008-09

  • The president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, will almost certainly stand for re-election in 2009 and win a second five-year term of office.
  • Economic growth will be supported by growth in mineral production, and in 2009 also by the stimulus created by the Kudu gas-to-power project. Real GDP growth of 4% is forecast for 2008, accelerating to 4.6% in 2009.
  • Average inflation is forecast to rise to 9% in 2008, although inflationary pressures will begin to abate in the second half of the year. In 2009 average inflation is forecast to fall to 6% as food and oil price pressures ease.
  • The rand (to which the Namibia dollar is fixed at parity) traded at an average of R7.61:US$1 in May. Further sharp depreciation is not expected; the exchange rate is forecast to average R7.90:US$1 in 2008 and R8.20:US$1 in 2009.
  • The current-account surplus will narrow to 13.7% of GDP in 2008, owing to faster growth of imports and higher profit remittances, and to 12.6% of GDP in 2009, owing mainly to the further widening of the trade deficit.

Monthly review

  • The Electoral Commission of Namibia has yet to set a date for the postponed election of the new local authority for Omuthiya in northern Namibia.
  • When the election is held, it seems certain to be a fierce contest between the ruling party, the South West Africa People’s Organisation (SWAPO), and the newly founded Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP).
  • The government is considering a package of measures to lessen the impact on the living standards of low-income Namibians of sharp rises in the prices of food, fuel and other essential items since the start of 2008.
  • The South African Reserve Bank is highly likely to raise its repo rate in June and the Bank of Namibia is expected to follow it by raising its base rate.
  • Investment in Namibian companies is set to increase under revised domestic asset requirements for Namibian pension funds and insurance companies.
  • Higher food and fuel prices pushed year-on-year inflation to 9.3% in April, its highest level since March 2003.
  • The pilchard catch ceiling for 2008 is being held at 15,000 tonnes.
  • A large potential oil reservoir, possibly containing 10bn barrels of oil, has been discovered in Namibian waters; the government may revive a scheme for a local oil refinery.
  • Namibia’s foreign-exchange reserves are at a record level, standing at US$1.13bn in February—82% higher than a year previously.

SOURCE: Country Report

Content

  • Highlights
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Domestic politics
  • Outlook for 2008-09: International relations
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Policy trends
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Fiscal policy
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Monetary policy
  • Outlook for 2008-09: International assumptions
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Economic growth
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Inflation
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Exchange rates
  • Outlook for 2008-09: External sector
  • Outlook for 2008-09: Forecast summary
  • The political scene: A date has yet to be set for the Omuthiya election
  • The political scene: The RDP is forced to call off a meeting in Katutura
  • Economic policy: Taxes on essential products may be cut
  • Economic policy: An interest rate rise is expected soon
  • Economic policy: New domestic asset requirements come into effect
  • Economic performance: Inflation has continued to rise
  • Economic performance: The pilchard catch ceiling is held at 15,000 tonnes
  • Economic performance: A large potential oil reservoir is discovered offshore
  • Economic performance: The government may revive a scheme for a local oil refinery
  • Economic performance: Bannerman commissions Goanikontes feasibility study
  • Economic performance: Foreign reserves reach record levels
  • Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
  • Data and charts: Quarterly data
  • Data and charts: Monthly data
  • Data and charts: Annual trends charts
  • Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
  • Political structure
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