Country Report Namibia November 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) will easily hold on to power in the presidential and National Assembly elections in November.
• Internal divisions are likely to resurface in SWAPO after the elections, and the president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, will come under renewed pressure from the "young comrades" in the party to adopt more radical policies.
• In a bid to counter the impact of the global recession on Namibia's economy, the government has substantially increased its projected expenditure over the coming years and is prepared to increase its debt to finance it.
• Real GDP growth will rise to 3.3% in 2010, as world demand rises for Namibia's minerals; in 2011 growth will accelerate to 4%, as uranium production increases by around 25% to some 10,000 tonnes/year.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to widen to 2.7% of GDP in 2010 and 4.5% of GDP in 2011, as the trade deficit narrows with rising mineral exports.

Monthly review

• A record number of political parties (14) and candidates (12) are contesting the parliamentary and presidential elections on November 27th-28th.
• The main interest at the election will be the showing of the Rally for Democracy and Progress formed by disaffected members of SWAPO in 2007.
• The preliminary voter register published by the Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) in mid-October was riddled with errors.
• The ECN has awarded the contract for printing ballot papers to a South African company, after opposition parties threatened to boycott the elections if a SWAPO-owned company was awarded the contract again.
• The executive committee of the Bank of Namibia (BoN), the central bank, kept the repo rate unchanged at its meeting in mid-October.
• Namibia's four commercial banks have complied with the BoN's demand to narrow the spread between their prime lending rates and the repo rate to 425 basis points, but their mortgage rates are still higher than the BoN would like.
• New figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics put real GDP growth in 2008 at 3.3%, compared with a previous estimate of 2.9%.
• Year-on-year inflation fell to 7.1% in September, from 7.6% in August, as food price inflation reached its lowest level since October 2006.
• Namibia's uranium output grew by 6% year on year in January-September; production in 2009 is set to exceed 5,000 tonnes for the first time.
• A seventh uranium company, Australia's Extract Resources, has listed on the Namibian Stock Exchange.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 10
NAICS Code: 212