Country Report Namibia October 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• The South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO) will easily hold on to power in the presidential and National Assembly elections in November.
• Internal divisions are likely to resurface in SWAPO after the elections, and the president, Hifikepunye Pohamba, will come under renewed pressure to adopt more radical policies from the "young comrades" in the party.
• In a bid to counter the impact of the global recession on Namibia's economy, the government has substantially increased its projected expenditure over the coming years and is prepared to increase its debt to finance it.
• Real GDP growth will rise to 3.5% in 2010, with the upturn in the world economy and increased demand for Namibia's minerals. In 2011 growth will fall to 3% as the year-on-year growth of diamond production slows.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to widen to 3.1% of GDP in 2010 and 5.1% of GDP in 2011 as the trade deficit narrows with rising mineral exports.

Monthly review

• SWAPO has chosen its list of candidates for the forthcoming election; the formerly disgraced leader of the youth wing of the party, Paulus Kapia, was placed high on the list and is certain to return to parliament.
• A code of conduct signed by all the political parties is intended to prevent intimidation in the run-up to the vote.
• The National Council has passed the controversial communications bill, ignoring amendments proposed by one of its standing committees.
• SWAPO's election manifesto contains little new, except for the promise of "an urgent review" of land redistribution policies and tougher policies on crime.
• Central government's domestic debt rose by just 8% in the year to end-June 2009, and its external debt barely grew at all.
• There are good indications that the economy began to revive in the second quarter of 2009.
• The attempt by George Forrest International to take over Forsys Metals Corporation, the owner of the Valencia uranium concession, has failed.
• A Chinese company is to buy a majority stake in Weatherly International, the owner of the Tsumeb copper smelter and Namibia's copper mines.
• Russia's Sintezneftegaz has announced a large offshore gas strike in a field that may contain a gas resource of up to 14trn cu ft.
• Although the trade deficit increased by 49% year on year in first-half 2009, the current-account surplus rose by 158% owing to a slump in remitted profits.