Country Report Namibia September 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The ruling party, the South West Africa People's Organisation (SWAPO), will continue to dominate the political scene throughout the forecast period, and Hifikepunye Pohamba will be re-elected president in November 2009.
• In a bid to counter the impact of the global recession on Namibia's economy, the government has substantially increased its projected expenditure over the coming years and is prepared to increase its debt to finance it.
• Real GDP growth will decline to 0.2% in 2009, mainly because of lower mineral production resulting from low global demand. In 2010, with an upturn in demand, higher diamond and uranium output will result in GDP growth of 2.7%.
• The current-account surplus is forecast to widen to 5% of GDP in 2009, owing to a smaller trade deficit mainly resulting from lower import prices, and to narrow to 4.8% of GDP in 2010 because of a deterioration in the invisibles balance.

Monthly review

• SWAPO's electoral college will meet on September 4th to select 72 candidates for the party list for the National Assembly election; the college will revive the struggle for control of the party between ideologues and pragmatists.
• Six opposition parties have demanded to know the date of the 2009 elections, which are due in November; they have also called for reforms that would make the elections fairer, but are unlikely to get their way.
• Black economic empowerment legislation is being held up by disagreement in SWAPO over whether the 50% equity share in companies to be owned by black Namibians should be paid for.
• Year-on-year inflation fell to 7.5% in July, compared with 9.1% in June, as the high inflation of 2008, resulting from sharply higher world prices for food and fuel, continued to subside.
• West Australian Metals has become the sixth foreign-owned uranium company to dual-list its shares on the Namibian Stock Exchange.
• The all-share index rose by 24% in the second quarter, but at end-June was still 38% down on a year earlier; the local companies' index fell slightly in the second quarter, but at end-June was 10% higher year on year.
• Belgian-based George Forrest International has secured the financing to buy Canada's Forsys Metals Corporation, owner of the Valencia uranium project.
• An overpriced Chinese tender for completing the northern railway extension, linked to a N$1bn concessionary loan from China, has been rejected by the government, which is to seek alternative financing for the project.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37;60;10;47
NAICS Code: 336;52;212;48