Country Report Niger February 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

Although elections are due in November 2009, it looks increasingly likely that the current president, Mamadou Tandja, will seek to extend his term of office and may even postpone both the presidential and legislative polls. Hama Amadou, the president of Mr Tandja’s party, Mouvement national pour la societe de developpement (MNSD), has said that he intends to stand in the presidential election, but he is currently in prison on a charge of corruption. Tensions within the MNSD are likely to continue, creating political uncertainty in the run-up to the elections. Assuming normal harvests and the continued development of the uranium sector, the Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 4.2% in 2009 and 4.8% in 2010. Inflation is forecast to fall from 11.3% in 2008 to 5% in 2009 and 3% in 2010 as food and energy price pressures subside. The current-account deficit is forecast to fall to 7.6% of GDP in 2009, as the trade deficit narrows as a result of lower world food and fuel prices, and rise to 10.3% of GDP in 2009 because of widening deficits on the trade and services accounts, due mainly to the demand for inputs by mining companies and infrastructure projects.

The political scene

Mr Tandja’s supporters are calling for the November presidential and legislative elections to be postponed to allow him to remain in office for three more years. A civil society coalition has been formed to oppose this. There are rumours of government involvement in the disappearance of a UN diplomat who was believed to have been trying to negotiate with the Tuareg rebels.

Economic policy

The IMF has expressed optimism about Niger’s economic prospects but has urged further structural reforms. Although there have been improvements in food security following a good harvest, there are still concerns about the supply of food to some areas.

The domestic economy

Average inflation in 2008 reached 11.3%, a rate not seen since the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994. The Imouraren uranium mine has been licensed and, when finished, could make Niger the world’s second-largest producer of uranium. Work has begun on the Chinese-financed oil refinery at Zinder.

Foreign trade and payments

Despite the strong growth of uranium export earnings, faster growth of imports as a result of high world food and fuel prices helped to push the current-account deficit to 13% of GDP in 2008.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 82;47;49;1;10;15
NAICS Code: 61;48;22;11;212;23