Country Report Senegal July 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The political scene in 2009-10 will be dominated by rivalries over who will succeed the elderly president, Abdoulaye Wade, when his term expires in 2012 (or earlier, in the event of his death or sudden illness).
• The victory of the opposition in local elections held in March 2009 suggests that it is in a strong position to challenge for power at the national level at the next presidential and legislative elections, due in 2012.
• In view of the severe global economic slowdown and recent disappointing agricultural and industrial production data, real GDP growth is now forecast to slow to 1.8% in 2009 and to 2.5% in 2010.
• Consumer price inflation, now forecast at 1.5% in 2009 and 2% in 2010, will continue to be heavily influenced by world prices and domestic production of food.
• In view of recent economic and trade data, as well as our forecast for global demand, the current-account deficit is expected to narrow from an equivalent of 12.2% of GDP in 2008 to 10.4% in 2009 and 11.1% in 2010.

Monthly review

• On May 24th the conclusions of a series of national consultations, known as assises nationales, were published. Their principle message was a call for greater democratic participation and accountability.
• On May 15th Senegal's parliament voted to create the post of vice-president. The vice-president will be appointed by the president to assist him or her without taking autonomous decisions or succeeding to the presidency.
• Francois Diatta, an alleged leader of a regional insurgent group, Mouvement des forces democratiques de Casamance, was arrested in Guinea-Bissau on July 2nd. The arrest follows an upsurge of violence in Casamance recently.
• On June 19th the IMF completed its third review of the three-year Poverty Support Instrument (PSI) agreement, giving a positive assessment of the authorities' efforts to mitigate the effects of the economic downturn.
• The Fund also approved an extension to the Exogenous Shocks Facility (ESF) and increased the amount of funding available under it by SDR 72.8m (US$112m) to SDR 121.4m.
• As a result of ongoing difficulties at the country's phosphate and fertiliser producer, Industries chimiques du Senegal, chemical production declined by nearly 9% in the first quarter of 2009 on a year-on-year basis.
• Mr Wade has announced plans to found a new bank for farmers and agricultural workers, Banque des agriculteurs du Senegal (BAS).

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37;49;60;53;59;48;2834;80;1;70;10
NAICS Code: 336;22;52;44;517;3254;62;11;72;212