Country Report Senegal March 2009

Summary

The political scene in 2009-10 will be dominated by rivalries over who will succeed the elderly president, Abdoulaye Wade, when his term expires in 2012 (or earlier, in the event of his death or incapacitation by illness).
Tension between the government and the opposition, which was exacerbated by the postponement of local elections due in May 2008, is expected to increase further when the delayed polls take place in March 2009.
In view of the severe global economic slowdown, real GDP growth is forecast to slow in tandem with foreign investment for infrastructure development, to 3.5% in 2009 and 3.6% in 2010.
Consumer price inflation, forecast at 2% in 2009 and 3.1% in 2010, will continue to be heavily influenced by world prices and domestic production of food.
In view of recent import data, the current-account deficit is now expected to narrow from an equivalent of 11.7% of GDP in 2008 to 9.5% of GDP in 2009 and 8.1% of GDP in 2010.

Ahead of local polls due in late March, the opposition has alleged that the electoral roll contains fictitious voters and that nearly half a million surplus voter identity cards have been produced, raising worries over electoral fraud.
Mr Wade has condemned the murder of the president of Guinea-Bissau, Joao Bernardo Vieira, on March 2nd, which poses a threat to regional stability, particularly in the neighbouring southern Senegalese region of Casamance.
An IMF mission that arrived in Senegal in February expressed broad satisfaction with the progress made by the authorities towards improving the fiscal position.
China's president, Hu Jintao, visited Senegal in mid-February. During his visit officials from both countries concluded agreements on trade, aid and co-operation in technology.
According to recently published data, although output of petrol products grew by an impressive 38.2% in 2008, production of most other major industrial commodities declined.
In the final quarter of 2008 exports increased by 42% year on year in value terms, but shrank in volume terms by 5.4%. Imports declined in both value and volume terms, by 3.3% and 30.7% respectively.

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49
NAICS Code: 22