Country Report South Africa July 2009
| Publication Date | July 2009 |
|---|---|
| Publisher | EIU |
| Product Type | Report |
| Pages | 29 |
| ISBN Number | not applicable |
| Product Code | EIU00211 |
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Summary
Outlook for 2009-10
- South Africa's new president, Jacob Zuma, will attempt to rebuild the "broad church" of the African National Congress (ANC) and will focus on jobs, health, education, crime and rural development.
- Mr Zuma will need his skills as a conciliator to balance the demands of his left-wing allies with those of the ANC centre, while also meeting the expectations of the electorate in the midst of a sharp economic downturn.
- Given quickly declining business and consumer confidence, the government's fiscal stimulus package will have a limited effect and the economy is forecast to contract by 2.2% in 2009, before recovering to 3.1% in 2010.
- The rand will continue to depreciate as a number of economic and political factors combine to undermine the currency, and is forecast to average R9.3:US$1 in 2009 and R10.2:US$1 in 2010. A rand crash is likely to be avoided.
- The current-account deficit is expected to fall to 5.8% of GDP in 2009 (as external trade retreats)??
Content
- Highlights
- Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
- Outlook for 2009-10: Risk of social unrest may rise
- Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
- Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
- Outlook for 2009-10: Medium-term policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
- Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
- Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
- Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
- Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
- Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
- Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
- The political scene: Respect for judicial independence is questioned
- The political scene: The controversy surrounding Judge Hlophe rumbles on
- Economic policy: The finance minister foresees a large revenue shortfall
- Economic policy: SARB keeps rates on hold as inflation remains sticky
- Economic policy: Regulators approve a sharp rise in electricity prices
- Economic policy: The competition authorities launch two new probes
- Economic policy: Brewing group SAB announces a major empowerment deal
- Economic performance: Household demand and exports shrink in Q1/2009
- Economic performance: Banking sector remains sound despite a rise in bad debts
- Economic performance: The current-account deficit remains high in Q1/2009
- Economic performance: Capital inflows are boosted by renewed investor appetite
- Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
- Data and charts: Quarterly data
- Data and charts: Monthly data
- Data and charts: Annual trends charts
- Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
- Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
- Basic data
- Political structure
Delivery Details
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