Country Report South Africa July 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• South Africa's new president, Jacob Zuma, will attempt to rebuild the "broad church" of the African National Congress (ANC) and will focus on jobs, health, education, crime and rural development.
• Mr Zuma will need his skills as a conciliator to balance the demands of his left-wing allies with those of the ANC centre, while also meeting the expectations of the electorate in the midst of a sharp economic downturn.
• Given quickly declining business and consumer confidence, the government's fiscal stimulus package will have a limited effect and the economy is forecast to contract by 2.2% in 2009, before recovering to 3.1% in 2010.
• The rand will continue to depreciate as a number of economic and political factors combine to undermine the currency, and is forecast to average R9.3:US$1 in 2009 and R10.2:US$1 in 2010. A rand crash is likely to be avoided.
• The current-account deficit is expected to fall to 5.8% of GDP in 2009 (as external trade retreats)??

• Highlights
• Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
• Outlook for 2009-10: Risk of social unrest may rise
• Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
• Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
• Outlook for 2009-10: Medium-term policy
• Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
• Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
• Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
• Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
• Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
• Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
• Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
• Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
• The political scene: Respect for judicial independence is questioned
• The political scene: The controversy surrounding Judge Hlophe rumbles on
• Economic policy: The finance minister foresees a large revenue shortfall
• Economic policy: SARB keeps rates on hold as inflation remains sticky
• Economic policy: Regulators approve a sharp rise in electricity prices
• Economic policy: The competition authorities launch two new probes
• Economic policy: Brewing group SAB announces a major empowerment deal
• Economic performance: Household demand and exports shrink in Q1/2009
• Economic performance: Banking sector remains sound despite a rise in bad debts
• Economic performance: The current-account deficit remains high in Q1/2009
• Economic performance: Capital inflows are boosted by renewed investor appetite
• Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
• Data and charts: Quarterly data
• Data and charts: Monthly data
• Data and charts: Annual trends charts
• Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
• Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
• Basic data
• Political structure