South Africa Business Forecast Q1 2007

Content

• Executive summary
  • Focus On 2007
• Chapter 1: Political Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Political Risk Ratings
  • Domestic Politics
  • The Jobs And Skills Conundrum
  • Competent economic management and faster growth have yet to be reflected in a significant reduction in
  • unemployment Some sections of black society are prospering, but many others remain economically
  • marginalised and incapable of offering the skills needed by an increasingly sophisticated economy While
  • risks to stability remain limited, this is an issue that is certain to continue to move up the political agenda
  • Table: Cabinet Ministers
• Chapter 2: Economic Outlook
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Economic Risk Ratings
  • Introduction
  • Economic Activity
  • Growth In H1 Above Earlier Estimates
  • Economic growth in H106 was revised upwards, with a seasonally adjusted annualised (saa) rate of 55% in
  • Q2 That said, growth fell in September and, with further rate rises ahead in 2007, we expect growth to slow,
  • although it will regain strength thereafter
  • Table: Economic Indicators
  • Fiscal Policy
  • (Another) Growth Budget
  • The treasury's Medium Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), issued on October 25 contained few surprises
  • Although investment will rise further, we expect the budget deficit to be narrower than earlier thought over the
  • forecast period
  • Table: Fiscal Indicators, ZARmn
  • Balance of Payments
  • The Key Vulnerability
  • The rand's weakness in mid-year has fed through to the current account deficit, which is growing less rapidly
  • than in recent years However, barring a sudden fall in imports, it will remain the key economic weakness
  • until at least 2008
  • Table: Balance of Payments
  • Monetary Policy
  • Further Rate Rises To Come
  • The South African Reserve Bank will raise interest rates at least one more time, possibly two, in order to slow
  • rapid domestic demand growth and eliminate the risk that CPIX will persistently exceed the top of its 3-6%
  • target band in 2007
  • Table: Monetary Indicators
• Chapter 3: Special Report
  • BMI Sovereign Risk Ratings
  • Table: BMI Sovereign RIsk Ratings
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Willingness to Pay
  • Middle East and Africa
  • Table: Middle East & Africa Sovereign Ratings - Evolution of Ability to Pay
• Chapter 4: Business Environment
  • SWOT Analysis
  • BMI Business Environment Risk Ratings
  • Legal Framework
  • Labour Force
  • Table: Demographic Indicators (2005)
  • Table: Employment Indicators
  • Foreign Investment Policy
  • Table: South Africa, Annual FDI Inflows
  • MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA, ANNUAL FDI INFLOWS
  • Table: Top Export Destinations, US$mn
  • Foreign Trade Regime
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 5: Key Sectors
  • Defence
  • Military Structure & Defence Industry
  • Table: South Africa Defence Sector - Armed Forces
  • Table: South Africa Defence Sector - Government Expenditure