Country Report Sudan January 2009

Outlook for 2009-10

• The Economist Intelligence Unit's central scenario is that a major political crisis will be averted in 2009-10, with the ruling National Congress Party maintaining control. However, there are significant downside risks.
• Strain will increase on the north-south Comprehensive Peace Agreement in the run-up to planned elections in 2009, and particularly as both sides rearm prior to the referendum on southern independence in 2011.
• Progress with economic reform will be limited, as the government is preoccupied by the political situation and unwilling to risk losing support from key constituencies. The fiscal deficit will average 5.3% of GDP in 2009-10.
• Global GDP growth is forecast to slow sharply, to 0.2%, in 2009, as the economic downturn worsens, recovering only slowly in 2010. The price of the benchmark dated Brent Blend will fall to an average of US$35/barrel in 2009.
• Global economic and domestic political pressures will constrain non-oil growth, which we expect to average around 5% over the outlook period.
• As commodity prices fall, inflation is projected to average 8.2% in 2009-10. The Sudanese pound will depreciate to an average of about SP2.3:US$1 in 2009 and SP2.4:US$1 in 2010.
• We expect the current-account deficit to widen sharply to an average of US$4.8bn (9% of GDP) in 2009-10.

Monthly review

• The Sudanese government has continued to send mixed signals about how it might respond to the issuance of a war crimes arrest warrant against the president, Omar al-Bashir, and has kept the timing of the elections uncertain.
• Hasan al-Turabi, an opposition leader, has been detained after calling on MrBashir to surrender himself to the International Criminal Court.
• A UN expert panel on the arms embargo in Darfur has reported that the Sudanese government has been bolstering its forces there.
• The UN-African Union Mission in Darfur (UNAMID) has deployed 63% of its planned force. This level is expected to reach 85% by March, although UNAMID continues to lack helicopters and other necessary equipment.
• The southern parliament has not yet approved its regional budget, amid delays and concerns about profligate spending and declining oil revenue.
• China and Sudan have signed a number of commercial agreements for energy and infrastructure projects, including a US$680m power station and a US$100m roadbuilding programme.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 49;60;37;15
NAICS Code: 22;52;336;23;11