Country Report Sudan July 2009

Summary

Sudan faces significant challenges, including elections in early 2010, tensions in Darfur and the diplomatic difficulties caused by the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for the president, Omar al-Bashir.
The north-south peace deal will be put under growing strain by elections in April 2010, the fiscal crisis in the south caused by lower oil revenue and disputes in the run-up to the referendum on southern secession, due in 2011.
Progress with economic reform will be limited, as the government is preoccupied with the political situation and unwilling to risk losing support from key constituencies. The fiscal deficit will average 2% of GDP in 2009-10.
The world economy will undergo a deep recession in 2009, with global GDP shrinking by 1.8%, recovering only slowly in 2010. Brent Blend will average US$62/barrel in 2009-10 and Sudanese crude will trade well below this.
Global economic pressures and domestic turmoil will constrain real GDP growth to an average of 3.1% in 2009-10. The current-account deficit will widen to an average of US$2.9bn (5.5% of GDP) over the forecast period.
As commodity prices fall, inflation is projected to ease to an average of 7.7% in 2009-10. The Sudanese pound is forecast to depreciate to an average of SP2.38:US$1 in 2009 and SP2.58:US$1 in 2010.

Delegations from the main Sudanese parties, the NCP and the SPLM, visited the US for a tripartite meeting on the implementation of the north-south Comprehensive Peace Agreement and on the conflict in Darfur.
The National Election Commission has confirmed that the national parliamentary and presidential elections will be further delayed to April 2010 on logistical grounds.
There have been more tribal clashes in the state of Upper Nile. Jikany Nuer attacked a convoy of food aid barges at Nasir, killing 40 SPLA soldiers.
Sudan, along with Egypt, have objected to an article on water security in a proposed agreement on water sharing between the nine Nile basin countries.
Preliminary first-quarter data have confirmed that the trade deficit widened in the first quarter of 2009, to US$1.4bn, as oil revenue bottomed out.
Sudan's newest oilfield, Qamari, operated by the Petrodar consortium in Upper Nile, has begun production three months later than planned; it is expected to boost Dar Blend production by 50,000 b/d when at full capacity.
Sudan's first aircraft manufacturing plant, the state-owned Safat Aviation Complex, has begun operations in Karari, a suburb of Khartoum.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 39
NAICS Code: 31