Country Report Sudan October 2009

Outlook for 2010-11

• Sudan faces significant political challenges, including elections in April 2010, tensions in Darfur and the diplomatic difficulties caused by the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for the president, Omar al-Bashir.
• The north-south peace deal will be put under growing strain by elections in April 2010, the fiscal crisis in the south and disputes in the run-up to the referendum on southern secession, currently scheduled for January 2011.
• Progress with economic reform will be limited, as the government is preoccupied with the political situation and unwilling to risk losing support from key constituencies. The fiscal deficit will average 1.6% of GDP in 2010-11.
• The world economy will recover from recession, but global GDP will only average 3.1% over the forecast period. Brent Blend will average US$71/barrel in 2010-11, and Sudanese crude will trade at about US$6-7 below this.
• Global economic pressures and domestic turmoil will constrain Sudan's real GDP growth to an average of 4.2% in 2010-11. The current-account deficit will narrow to an average of US$1.9bn (3.1% of GDP).
• Inflation is projected to ease to an average of 10.8% in 2010-11, partly owing to lower food and commodity prices. The Sudanese pound is forecast to depreciate to an average of SP2.46:US$1 in 2010 and SP2.56:US$1 in 2011.

Monthly review

• The ruling National Congress Party's third convention has confirmed Mr Bashir as the party's presidential candidate for the April 2010 election, demonstrating that he has maintained his support within the party.
• The SPLM held a five-day conference with 28 parties—including the Umma Party and the Popular Congress Party. The conference did not produce an electoral alliance but did issue a declaration endorsing some SLPM positions.
• A report from the Switzerland-based Small Arms Survey has noted the high level of arms flowing into both Northern and Southern Sudan.
• The speaker of the Southern Sudan Legislative Assembly, James Wani, has argued that revelations about corruption are a positive sign of growing transparency, but some donors are believed to be delaying aid disbursements.
• GOSS has announced a plan to build an oil refinery in Warrap State. However, the proposal is at a very early stage and there is no chance of Southern Sudan having its own refining capacity until well after 2011.
• A mechanical failure at the recently commissioned Merowe Dam caused an eight-hour blackout in Khartoum, and although such blackouts are becoming less common in the capital, power problems persist in other regions.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;49
NAICS Code: 52;22