Country Report Sudan September 2009

Product Code EIU00559
Publication Date September 2009
Publisher EIU
Product Type Report
Pages 24
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Outlook for 2009-10

  • Sudan faces significant political challenges, including elections in April 2010, tensions in Darfur and the diplomatic difficulties caused by the International Criminal Court's arrest warrant for the president, Omar al-Bashir.
  • The north-south peace deal will be put under growing strain by elections in April 2010, the fiscal crisis in the south caused by lower oil revenue and disputes in the run-up to the referendum on southern secession, due in 2011.
  • Progress with economic reform will be limited, as the government is preoccupied with the political situation and unwilling to risk losing support from key constituencies. The fiscal deficit will average 2.4% of GDP in 2009-10.
  • The world economy is undergoing a deep recession in 2009, and global GDP will shrink by 1.4%, recovering only slowly in 2010. Brent Blend will average US$68/barrel in 2009-10 and Sudanese crude will trade well below this.
  • Global economic pressures and domestic turmoil will constrain Sudan's real GDP growth to an average of 4.2% in 2009-10. The current-account deficit will widen to an average of US$2.6bn (4.8% of GDP).
  • Inflation is projected to ease to an average of 8.3% in 2009-10, partly owing to lower food and commodity prices. The Sudanese pound is forecast to depreciate to an average of SP2.37:US$1 in 2009 and SP2.52:US$1 in 2010.

Monthly review

  • There has been agreement on some aspects of the urgently needed bill on the referendum for southern self-determination. The main disagreements concern the voting threshold and whether southerners living in the north can vote.
  • A new grouping of six Darfuri rebel splinter factions from the Sudan Liberation Movement/Army was announced at a meeting in Libya. The next round of peace talks in Qatar have been delayed until October.
  • The SPLM and the Umma Party have formed an electoral alliance, and other northern parties are being invited to join through a conference in Juba.
  • A report on oil sharing by Global Witness has called for an independent audit after finding discrepancies in oil production figures, with the Sudanese government declaring lower volumes than the operator, CNPC.
  • The National Petroleum Commission has granted Ascom of Moldova permission to participate in the exploration of oil Block 5B, and has separately approved the formation of exploration Block Ea, west of existing blocks.
  • Nile Commercial Bank, laden with bad loans, has been bailed out with US$42m; the Bank of Southern Sudan is taking over its management. The head of Al Nilain Bank has been replaced amid corruption claims.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 37;60
NAICS Code: 336;52

  • Highlights
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
  • Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
  • Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
  • Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
  • Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
  • The political scene: Negotiations on referendum bill edge forward
  • The political scene: New grouping of Darfuri factions is formed
  • The political scene: SPLM explores dialogue with major opposition parties
  • The political scene: The US searches for a new Sudan policy
  • Economic policy: Oil revenue data continue to provoke questions
  • Economic policy: Sudan signs framework agreement with IAEA
  • Economic performance: Ascom is authorised to explore in Block 5B
  • Economic performance: Nile Commercial Bank is rescued again
  • Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
  • Data and charts: Quarterly data
  • Data and charts: Monthly data
  • Data and charts: Annual trends charts
  • Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
  • Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
  • Basic data
  • Political structure

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