Country Report Tanzania July 2009

Summary

The president, Jakaya Kikwete, will continue to face the most challenging period of his presidency as economic growth is hit by the global downturn, but the fragmented opposition is unlikely to be able to pose a challenge.
The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) is likely to choose Mr Kikwete as its candidate in the 2010 presidential election. He is expected to win, but with a smaller majority on a lower turnout as the electorate expresses its discontent.
The government is committed to promoting private-sector growth by reforming the weak legal system, reducing corruption and encouraging public-private partnerships, but progress will be slow.
The global slump will hurt the economy through a slowdown in foreign direct investment, trade and tourism. The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts real GDP growth of 4.5% in 2009 and 5% in 2010.
Inflation will ease as food prices??

Highlights
Outlook for 2009-10: Domestic politics
Outlook for 2009-10: International relations
Outlook for 2009-10: Policy trends
Outlook for 2009-10: Fiscal policy
Outlook for 2009-10: Monetary policy
Outlook for 2009-10: International assumptions
Outlook for 2009-10: Economic growth
Outlook for 2009-10: Inflation
Outlook for 2009-10: Exchange rates
Outlook for 2009-10: External sector
Outlook for 2009-10: Forecast summary
The political scene: Parliament is becoming more assertive
The political scene: Legislation is introduced to curb corruption
Economic policy: The president announces a bail-out package
Economic policy: Some of the president's spending plans are worrying
Economic policy: The main beneficiary of a rise in spending is agriculture
Economic policy: Dependence on donors grows as revenue growth slows
Economic policy: Domestic borrowing must also rise
Economic policy: Government ensures that it is seen to be doing something
Economic performance: A poll of economic forecasters is relatively optimistic
Economic performance: There is no quick solution to electricity supply shortages
Economic performance: Delays to electricity projects seem inevitable
Data and charts: Annual data and forecast
Data and charts: Quarterly data
Data and charts: Monthly data
Data and charts: Annual trends charts
Data and charts: Monthly trends charts
Data and charts: Comparative economic indicators
Basic data
Political structure