Country Report Zimbabwe December 2008

Summary

Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, is expected to leave power during the forecast period, as the economic and humanitarian catastrophe that he has brought about makes his position untenable.
Mr Mugabe is, however, unlikely to leave office without a struggle, and the actions of the next president of South Africa will be crucial, as he will be in an influential position to force a change.
Economic policy will continue to be driven by political considerations, and the economy will continue to contract, at a forecast rate of 4.7% in 2009 and 3.7% in 2010.
Hyperinflation will continue throughout the forecast period, although it may start to decline once a new government that will halt the printing of money to finance its activities is in place.
Inflation will continue to undermine the value of the currency, with a widening gap expected between the official and parallel rates.
The global economic slump will reduce demand for Zimbabwe's metal exports in 2009-10. However, the chronic shortage of foreign currency and a collapse in demand will lead to a fall in imports, reducing the trade deficit.

There has been no movement on the power-sharing agreement, with both sides remaining deadlocked over the allocation of key cabinet positions.
Botswana's foreign affairs minister, Phandu Skelemani, has said that if the power-sharing talks fail his government will not recognise Mr Mugabe as president.
Around 80 Zimbabwean army soldiers, frustrated over not being able to withdraw their wages from banks, rioted on November 28th and December1st.
Nearly 500 Zimbabweans have been killed by cholera since August and more than 11,000 have been infected, in the most severe outbreak for 15 years. A large number of people have fled across the border into South Africa, posing a major regional health threat.
The government has criticised insurance companies and pension funds for preferring to invest in the stock exchange rather than the government.
Large parts of the country remain unplanted, as small-scale farmers cannot afford seed or fertiliser. The Commercial Farmers' Union expects the 2009 harvest to be the worst ever.

Source: Country Report

This report covers the following industry codes:
SIC Code: 60;1
NAICS Code: 52;11